President Donald Trump returns to Texas Wednesday for a fundraising event in Odessa and, per press reports, to "tour an oil rig in Midland." Per our usual practice, we've rounded up various polling results capturing Texans' views of the president to provide context for his visit, which comes less than 100 days before voters decide whether to award him with another term.
For the latest in the much-followed polling in the presidentical race, see the 6 most recent polls in the table below. (For all of the Trump/Biden trial ballot polling in Texas, see our presidential poll tracker.)
| Poll | Field Dates | Sample Size | Sample Composition | MOE | Trump | Biden | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | 7/17-7/26 | 2,685 | Likely Voters | +/-1.9% | 45 | 47 | D+2 |
| Quinnipiac | 7/16-7/20 | 880 | Registered Voters | +/-3.3% | 44 | 45 | D+1 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 7/7-7/10 | 1212 | Registered Voters | +/-3.3% | 45 | 45 | Tie |
| Dallas Morning News/UT Tyler | 6/29-7/7 | 1677 | Likely Voters | +/- 2.5% | 43 | 48 | D+5 |
| UT/Texas Politics Project | 6/19-6/29 | 1200 | Registered Voters | +/-2.8% | 48 | 44 | R +4 |
| Fox News | 6/20-6.29 | 1001 | Registered Voters | +/- 3.0% | 44% | 45% | D+1 |
While the president's national job approval numbers have seen some erosion, his overall job approval continues to fluctuate in Texas within the same reange we've seen through most of his presidency. His job approval in University of Texas polling has fluctuated between 43% and 52% across 12 polls between February 2017 and June 2020, with his net approval rating (the difference between his overall approval and disapproval) ranging from +8 to -8. In the most recent poll in this series, 45% approved of the job he was doing, 48% disapproved
| category | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2017 | 46% | 44% | 11% |
| June 2017 | 43% | 51% | 7% |
| October 2017 | 45% | 50% | 6% |
| February 2018 | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| June 2018 | 47% | 44% | 8% |
| October 2018 | 48% | 45% | 6% |
| February 2019 | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| June 2019 | 52% | 44% | 5% |
| October 2019 | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| February 2020 | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| April 2020 | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| June 2020 | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| October 2020 | 49% | 46% | 4% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 32% |
| Approve somewhat | 14% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 5% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 6% |
| Disapprove strongly | 42% |
| Don't know | 1% |
Partisan views of the president have been polarized across the entirety of his presidency. Democrats consistently disapprove of the job he's doing almost universally, and intensely: among the 93% of Democrats who expressed disapproval in June, 2020, 87% strongly disapproved.
| Poll | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2017 | 8% | 83% | 10% |
| June 2017 | 5% | 90% | 5% |
| October 2017 | 5% | 92% | 4% |
| February 2018 | 8% | 85% | 8% |
| June 2018 | 8% | 84% | 9% |
| October 2018 | 6% | 91% | 4% |
| February 2019 | 7% | 88% | 5% |
| June 2019 | 11% | 86% | 4% |
| October 2019 | 6% | 90% | 4% |
| February 2020 | 5% | 89% | 6% |
| April 2020 | 7% | 86% | 6% |
| June 2020 | 5% | 93% | 2% |
| October 2020 | 7% | 89% | 4% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 2% | 22% | 62% |
| Approve somewhat | 3% | 14% | 24% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 2% | 12% | 5% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 6% | 16% | 3% |
| Disapprove strongly | 87% | 34% | 5% |
| Don't know | 0% | 2% | 1% |
Republicans have been about as uniform in their approval of Trump, though their positivity is not as intense as Demcrats' negativity. For those expecting substantial erosion in GOP enthusiasm for Trump as the Fall election nears, there are no clear signs of it. The share of Republicans who said they approve strongly of Trump's job performance in 2020 polling was 66% in February, 69% in April, and 62% in June.
| Poll | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2017 | 81% | 10% | 8% |
| June 2017 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| October 2017 | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| February 2018 | 83% | 11% | 5% |
| June 2018 | 87% | 7% | 6% |
| October 2018 | 88% | 7% | 4% |
| February 2019 | 88% | 8% | 5% |
| June 2019 | 88% | 8% | 5% |
| October 2019 | 88% | 8% | 5% |
| February 2020 | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| April 2020 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| June 2020 | 86% | 8% | 6% |
| October 2020 | 90% | 8% | 2% |
| Category | Lean Republican | Not very strong Republican | Strong Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 57% | 36% | 73% |
| Approve somewhat | 21% | 34% | 23% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 10% | 12% | 1% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 3% | 8% | 1% |
| Disapprove strongly | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Don't know | 1% | 1% | 0% |
Support for Trump's handling of the coronavirus did decline noticeably between April and June. In April, 48% of Texans approved and 49% disapproved of the job he was doing; in June, 44% approved and 49% disapproved. The share of Republicans who approved strongly dropped from 62% to 54%, but most of those who changed their positions appear to have become somewhat less approving (as opposed to disapproving), with the share who reported approving "somewhat" edging up from 24% to 28% in the same period.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 27% |
| Approve somewhat | 17% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 5% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 6% |
| Disapprove strongly | 43% |
| Don't know | 1% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 33% |
| Approve somewhat | 15% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 6% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 7% |
| Disapprove strongly | 38% |
| Don't know | 1% |
Approval of the president's handling of the economy was largely unchanged between April and June.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 36% |
| Approve somewhat | 14% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 7% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 8% |
| Disapprove strongly | 34% |
| Don't know | 2% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 37% |
| Approve somewhat | 12% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 8% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 9% |
| Disapprove strongly | 33% |
| Don't know | 1% |
Trump gets noticably lower ratings for his "handling of race relations."
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 27% |
| Approve somewhat | 14% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 5% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 5% |
| Disapprove strongly | 45% |
| Don't know | 3% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 30% |
| Approve somewhat | 17% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 8% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 5% |
| Disapprove strongly | 38% |
| Don’t know | 2% |