The failure of State Representative Cecil Bell's bill that would have prohibited the issuing of same-sex marriage licenses, HB 4105, marks more than just a defeat for the social conservative bloc who promoted it. National patterns in public opinion and a looming decision by the United States Supreme Court expected to lend (at least some) additional legal protections to same sex couples likely motivated the bill's supporters even as these transformations would limit or nullify its overall impact. But beyond the national tide running counter to Bell's bill, a look closer to home also finds very shallow support in Texas for the impulse to prohibit the recognition of same sex relationships. Specifically, public opinion trends leading up to the defeat of HB 4105 – not to mention the likely future developments mentioned above – make it seem likely that last night was probably the Texas Legislature's last substantial effort to ban same sex marriage rights with any hope of succeeding.  

While partisanship clearly informed the public positioning of legislators during last night's debate, with Democrats engineering the defeat of a bill that had virtually the entire Republican caucus' names on it, underlying facets of public opinion strongly suggest that last night's performance was little more than Kabuki theater (if at times one seemingly interpreted by the cast of "Animal House"). Democrats and their progressive allies are rightly claiming victory – a rare event this session – but the lack of commitment to the bill among Republicans, in evidence by the mood in the House as the clock ticked down, was also a factor (despite day after protestations to the contrary). But the latter's lack of enthusiasm for manning the ramparts in order to prevent gay marriage is also evident in public opinion if you look carefully.

This might seem patently at odds both with the general sense of Texans' overwhelming embrace of social conservatism, especially by voting Texans, and with the evidence at hand in the matter of HB 4104 – which was co-sponsored by virtually the entire House Republican caucus. Even our own polling, as recently as October 2014, showed public attitudes sharply divided, with a majority opposing same-sex marriage when provided a binary choice of simply supporting or opposing it.    

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Because the binary choice of either accepting or rejecting gay marriage has become the defining frame of the the public policy debate, we've been more or less forced to transition to this posing of the question in UT/Texas Tribune polling in order to capture the debate as the public currently faces it. Not surprisingly, we see predicable patterns in partisan attitudes, with Democrats largely supportive of same-sex marriage and Republicans largely opposed.

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However, a more subtle parsing of the question which we've repeatedly asked in the preceding four and half years, reveals far more nuance in Texans' attitudes toward the legal status of same-sex couples than the binary choice provides. As we've noted previously, when offered the seemingly more secular option of allowing civil unions for same sex couples, more Republicans approved of this approach than did those wanting to ban both civil unions and gay marriage in six of nine polls between 2009 and 2014, as the graphic below illustrates. Coupled with the roughly 15 percent of Republicans who express support for gay marriage (even over civil unions), a majority of Republican voters have consistently expressed some openness to legal recognition for same-sex couples. Religiosity among Republican voters makes marriage a problematic proposition, particularly when framed in such terms overtly, but nonetheless, these numbers suggest much more openness to, or at least tolerance of, same-sex relationships than are implied by the responses to binary questions (or the tone of the more extreme opponents of same-sex marriage).

The maneuvers that deep sixed HB 4105 were, deservedly enough, widely-heralded as a rare victory for liberals and Democrats. But their stalling tactics all week exploited the position of HB 4105 deep on the calendar on the day of a big legislative deadline – itself a sign of tepid enthusiasm for the measure within the legislative body. The reliable Democratic opposition also positioned them as convenient stalking horses for many Republicans, among whom support for the Bell bill was likely a reluctant but required gesture toward the roughly quarter of Republicans who oppose any form of legitimized same-sex unions – and have been showing up to vote in low-turnout GOP primaries. The degree of pretense here is yet another expression of the multiple conflicts contained in the Texas GOP.

This isn't to say that we've seen the last of efforts in the Texas Legislature to obstruct gay marriage. But unlike attitudes about, say, abortion rights, which are remarkably stable despite their subtleties, attitudes on same-sex relationships have moved significantly in a short period of time. While the resistance to gay marriage among Republicans is real, its roots aren't deep among a large chunk of them – about 40 percent, based on the trend in support for civil unions. The shallowness of the opposition to gay marriage in the current terms of the debate was evident in the House last night, and is likely to be even more evident by the time gay marriage opponents return to fight in the 85th Legislature.