The 2014 Texas Lyceum Poll finds Greg Abbott leading Wendy Davis 49%-40% among likely voters. Libertarian and Green Party candidates Kathie Glass and Brandon Parmer each garnered two points, and eight percent declined to choose a candidate. The poll was conducted from September 11-25, and had an overall sample size of 1000 respondents. The trial ballot results were among a sub-group of 666 likely voters, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.80 percentage points.
(2014 Texas Lyceum Poll - N=666 LV, MOE +/- 3.80%, September 11-25, 2014, landline w/ cell phone supplement)
The poll also surveyed the races for Lieutenant Governor and US Senator. In the Lieutenant Governor race, 47 percent chose Republican State Senator Dan Patrick and 33 percent chose Democratic State Senator Leticia Van d Putte. The libertarian and Green candidates divided 5 percent of the vote and 14 percent declined to make a choice. In the U.S. Senate Race, incumbent Republican John Cornyn led his Democratic challenger David Alameel 48%-30%, with third party candidates evenly dividing eight percent and 14 percent declining to respond.
(2014 Texas Lyceum Poll - N=666 LV, MOE +/- 3.80%, September 11-25, 2014, landline w/ cell phone supplement)
We will update this post or add a new post that looks more closely at the internals of the results later. More results, including the initial poll release of policy item results on issues including health, immigration, and abortion, can be found on the Texas Lyceum website.
The excerpt below from the Texas Lyceum's summary statement provides question wording and information about the likely voter screen used and treatment of undecided voters:
(For Q9 through Q11 respondents were asked the question as written below. Those unwilling to
express an opinion, were provided with the follow-up: “If you had to make a choice, who would you
choose?” The results presented below combine those initially expressing an opinion with those
prompted after initially being unsure. Likely voters were determined with a regression model that
relied on turnout intention, interest, race/ethnicity, and partisan strength to predict turnout.)
Q9. [ASK IF Q1 EQ 1] If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for
[RANDOMIZE CANDIDATE CHOICES] the Republican Greg Abbott, the Democrat Wendy
Davis, the Libertarian Kathy Glass, the Green Party candidate Brandon Parmer, someone else,
or haven’t you thought enough about it?
Among likely voters (n=666, MOE is +/-3.80 %)
1. Greg Abbott 49%
2. Wendy Davis 40
3. Kathie Glass 2
4. Brandon Parmer 2
5. Refused 8
Q10. [ASK IF Q1 EQ 1] If the election for Lieutenant Governor were held today, would you vote for
[RANDOMIZE CANDIDATE CHOICES] the Republican Dan Patrick, the Democrat Leticia Van
de Putte [PRON: LET-EESH-E-A VAN DE PYOOT], the Libertarian Robert Butler, the Green
Party candidate Chandrakantha [PRON: CHAN-DRACK-ANTHA] Courtney, someone else, or
haven’t you thought enough about it?
Among likely voters (n=666, MOE is +/-3.80 %)
1. Dan Patrick 47%
2. Leticia Van de Putte 33
3. Robert Butler 3
4. Chandrakantha Courtney 2
5. Refused 14
Q11. [ASK IF Q1 EQ 1] If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, would you vote for
[RANDOMIZE CANDIDATE CHOICES] the Republican John Cornyn [PRON: CORN-IN], the
Democrat David Alameel, the Libertarian Rebecca Paddock, the Green Party candidate Emily
Marie Sanchez, or haven’t you thought enough about it?
Among likely voters (n=666, MOE is +/-3.80 %)
1. John Cornyn 48%
2. David Alameel 30
3. Rebecca Paddock 4
4. Emily Marie Sanchez 4
5. Refused 14
Methodology information on the Texas Lyceum Poll:
N=1,000 ADULTS
MOE=+/-3.1 PERCENTAGE POINTS UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
CELL PHONE SUPPLEMENT
BILINGUAL INSTRUMENT/INTERVIEWERS
September 11-25, 2014
The Texas Lyceum will release the questionnaire and cross tabs from the entire poll later in the week after all results are released.