April Polling: War and surging gas prices fuel another negative turn in Texans’ views of the economy
The April University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll finds Texans feeling the pain from a sharp rise in gas prices fueled by war in the Middle East, with 61% of Texas voters “very concerned” about the price of gasoline and energy amidst renewed worries about the economy and prices overall.
The rapid rise in prices at the gas pump resulting from the U.S.-Israeli military attacks on Iran and the resulting regional conflict fueled a 23-point increase in the share of Texas voters “very concerned” about gas prices since the February UT/TxPP poll, when 38% were “very concerned.” According to the Automobile Association of America, the average price of regular was $3.79 per gallon on April 29, up from $2.72 a year prior.
The sharp increase in concern over gas prices adds to voters’ already strained price sensitivity, with concerns about the costs a steady feature of polling over the last year, and continuing in the April poll. More than half of Texans reported being “very concerned” about the prices of everyday goods and services (65%), the cost of health care (63%), and the cost of housing (53%) — along with the addition of gas and energy prices (61%).
The April 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics poll was conducted April 10-20, 2026 among 1200 registered voters in Texas. The margin of error for the overall sample was +/- 2.83%. Data was collected by YouGov over the internet.
Majority of Texas voters opposed U.S. military action in Iran
Elevated concerns about gas prices were accompanied with widespread opposition to U.S. military action in Iran, with 37% approving (24% strongly) and nearly half, 49%, disapproving (36% strongly); 13% were either neutral (8%) or had no opinion (5%). Texas voters were even more negative when asked if they would “support or oppose the deployment of U.S. ground troops to Iran”: 30% supported U.S. boots on the ground, while 60% expressed opposition (45% strongly).
The results convey sharp partisan differences in attitudes. Texas Democrats’ displayed near unanimity in opposition to U.S. military action in Iran: 84% were opposed (7% approved of military action), with 87% opposed to the deployment of ground troops (8% expressed support). Republicans, on the other hand, were largely supportive, though with opinions more divided: 69% approved of military action while 16% disapproved — 15% were either neutral (10%) or had no opinion (5%). When asked about the deployment of U.S. ground troops in Iran, GOP support was less widespread, with a majority, 55%, expressing support for deeper military engagement, but notably, more than third, 35%, expressing opposition to the commitment of ground troops.
True independents, which don’t include partisan leaners and make up 10% of the polling sample (which is within the usual range), are only slightly less skeptical of the current military engagement than Texas Democrats. Only 11% approve of military action, while nearly three-quarters, 72%, disapprove. Only 5% support deploying U.S. troops, while 80% expressed opposition – 68% strongly.
Overall lack of support for U.S. military action in Iran exists among widespread awareness of the conflict. In a set of questions assessing Texas voters’ exposure to information about various items of potential public interest, the Iran conflict dominated attention: 76% of Texas voters reported having heard “a lot” about “war with Iran," with only 2% reporting hearing “nothing at all.” By comparison, 52% had heard “a lot” about the Artemis moon mission.
Negative reactions to the U.S. military campaign come amidst divisions in both parties about the role of the United States in international affairs. When asked if they agreed or disagreed with the statement, “This country would be better off if we just stayed home and did not concern ourselves with problems in other parts of the world,” 45% agreed with the statement while 49% disagreed; 7% had no opinion. These totals fell within the middle of the band of responses evident over 13 polls going back to October 2014.
There is no clear consensus among adherents of either party, with Democrats only somewhat more likely to disagree: 42% of Democrats agreed with the “stay at home” position, while 53% disagreed; Among Republicans, 42% agreed, while 52% disagreed.
Current attitudes are, no doubt, being influenced by the current conflict and the constellation of partisan forces expressing support and opposition. In February, and in response to the same question on six surveys between April 2022 and February 2026, before the current conflict, a majority of GOP voters agreed with the non-interventionist position. Likewise, the share of Democrats who disagreed with that posture decreased by 7-points, from 60% to 53%, between February and April.
In the context of the possible impact of the Iran war on the views of independent voters in the November election, independents expressed stronger anti-interventist positions than partisans, with a majority, 55%, agreeing that the U.S. would be better off if we stayed out of international affairs, while 36% disagreed.
Predominantly negative views of the economy worsen (again)
The slight improvement in Texans’ views of the state and the country’s economic conditions evident in the previous two polls in the time series were largely reversed in April, as economic uncertainty around the war fueled higher fuel prices and renewed worries about more widespread upward pressures on prices.
While it has been widely reported that the short- and medium-term macroeconomic impact of the war in Iran is much more negative in other parts of the world, the share of Texas voters judging the U.S. economy “better” than a year ago decreased from 36% in February to 27% in April, while the share judging it “worse off” compared to last year jumped from 46% to well more than half, 56%, in the same period. While negative views of the national economy predominated among Democrats (8% better; 84% worse) and independents (10% better; 74% worse), Republican voters’ views of the economy compared to a year ago, while still in net positive territory, also deteriorated notably, from 62% “better” and 16% “worse” in February to 46% “better” and 29% “worse” in April.
Texas voters’ assessments of their personal economic situations were less acutely negative than their views of the macro economy, though they remained in net-negative territory, continuing a trend of net-negative ratings going back to April 2020. About a quarter of Texas voters, 26%, reported that the economic situation of their families had improved since last year, while 39% reported being worse off and just under a third, 32%, reporting being in the same economic position.
The survey finds a modicum of relative optimism in assessments of what the economy might look like one year from now. Slightly more Texas voters expect the economy to be better (38%) than worse (35%) in a year, with 18% expecting it to be “about the same,” and 8% holding no opinion.
With the mix of economic concerns and foreign policy front and center, a majority of voters, 55%, say they think that tariffs will generally hurt their family economically, up 5 points since February. While partisanship shapes these views, Republican views on the immediate impact of tariffs appear to be growing more negative. In December polling, the plurality of Republicans, 39%, said that they expected tariffs to help them economically. That has since dropped to 34% in February and 28% in April. Over the same period, the share of GOP voters expecting negative economic consequences has increased from 21% to 29%.
In the long run, a majority of voters, 51%, expect tariffs to hurt the U.S. economy, up from 47% in February. A majority of Republican voters continue to maintain the view that tariffs will help the U.S. economy in the long run (56%), but the share has dropped 9 points since December.
Large majorities of Democrats and independent voters say that the tariffs are hurting them now (78% and 63%, respectively), and expect them to hurt the U.S. economy in the long-run (83% and 71%, respectively).
Given the downward pressure of one of the Trump Administration’s signature economic policies on economic attitudes along with the visible economic consequence of the war in Iran in the form of increased gas prices, the poll finds Texas voters sour on President Trump’s handling of inflation and prices and the overall economy.
Overall, a majority of Texas voters said that they disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy (52% disapproval, 36% approval) and of inflation and prices (56% disapproval, 33% approval). The share disapproving of his handling of the economy ties highs in the time series from August and October of last year. While not the highest registered disapproval among Democrats, independent (77% disapprove, 11% approve) and Republican views (19% disapprove, 65% approve) represent disapproval highs for president Trump over 12 surveys going back to June 2019.
On inflation and prices, the 56% who disapprove of his performance is statistically indistinguishable from August and October 2025 polling, but again, represents disapproval highs in the time series among both independents (80% disapproval, 9% approval) and Republicans, among whom one in four say that they disapprove of how Trump is handling the issue of prices and inflation, with 59% approving. This result represents a significant decline from just February, when 70% approved of his handling of prices and only 17% disapproved.
The mid-innings of the 2026 election
Conducted during the interlude between the March primary elections and the November elections, the poll revealed election related attitudes that reflect both the sharp intra-party animosities fueling the run-off race for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, as well the strong headwinds facing GOP candidates buffeted by President Donald Trump’s sagging approval numbers and widespread economic concerns.
The hotly contested primary elections for the U.S. Senate seat in both parties and the ensuing GOP run-off campaign fed a slight increase in awareness of the U.S. Senate race in Texas: nearly a third of Texas voters, 32%, report having heard “a lot” about the U.S. Senate race in Texas, compared to the 27% who said the same in the February UT/TxPP poll, conducted a few weeks before Election Day. But as in February, reported levels of exposure to news about the Senate race fell far below the stories that dominated the fragmented media environment at the time the poll was conducted. For comparison, 76% reported hearing “a lot” about the war with Iran, and more than half, 52%, reported the same about the Artemis moon mission.
Even amidst widespread expectation of a Democratic advantage in the 2026 election given the national headwinds, Texas voters’ views of the Republican Party remain more positive — or, perhaps more telling, less negative – than views of the Democratic Party. But neither political party enjoys net-positive favorability ratings: 43% view the Republican Party favorably, while 46% view the state’s dominant party unfavorably, with 9% neutral and 3% expressing no opinion. The share with a favorable view of the Democratic Party is 5 points lower (38%), while half, 50%, express unfavorable views of the state’s minority party, with 10% neutral and 3% holding no opinion.
With candidates in both parties likely considering the possibility of targeting independents in the hotly contested fall election, neither party enjoys a clear advantage among the group of voters definitionally unaligned with either of them. Among true independents, 9% view the Democratic Party favorably and 61% view the Democrats unfavorably. A statistically indistinguishable 10% view the Republican Party favorably, while 61% view the GOP unfavorably.
While still a long time before the fall campaigns begin in earnest, the poll included general election trial ballots for the top three races in the state. Such match-ups months before election day provide glimpses of current attitudes but have no predictive value (or intent) six months before early voting begins in October.
Longtime incumbents Governor Greg Abbott and Lt. Governor Dan Patrick lead their Democratic challengers, while the intensely personal and divisive primary run off between Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton has boosted Democratic nominee James Talarico in hypothetical match-ups between the Democrat, who avoided a run-off in his March primary, and the two Republicans still bitterly fighting for the GOP nomination.
In the hypothetical match-ups between Talarico and the potential Republican nominees, Talarico leads Cornyn 40% to 33%, and enjoys a similar 42% to 34% lead over Paxton. In both hypothetical match-ups, nearly one in five Texas voters (19%) said they have no opinion about the race yet.
While the Democratic candidate leading two established Republicans in these match-ups is sure to raise some eyebrows, party crosstabs for both results reveal a Republican electorate still registering the effects of the months-long, bruising, negative campaigning by Paxton and Cornyn, and the GOP divisions the race has exacerbated.
While Talarico is the choice of 80% or more of Democrats in the two match-ups (80% versus Cornyn, 82% versus Paxton), neither Paxton nor Cornyn succeeds in attracting the same level of support among their Republican base: Paxton is the choice of 63% of Republicans, with 11% choosing Talarico, 6% someone else, and 20% with no opinion. Cornyn is the choice of a slightly smaller 60% of Republicans (well within the margin of error for this subgroup estimate), with 10% choosing Talarico, 9% someone else, and 21% with no opinions.
Cornyn and Paxton also suffer from the combination of dim views of them, and inattention, among Texas independents. Independents prefer Talarico over Cornyn 36% to 13%, with most of the remainder having no opinion (39%); they prefer Talarico over Paxton 39% to 14%, with roughly the same share, 38%, expressing no opinion.
In the race to determine whether Greg Abbott embarks on a record-setting fourth election to the governor’s office, 44% of Texas voters say they would choose Abbott while 38% prefer Austin-based State Representative Gina Hinojosa, with 5% preferring “someone else” and 13% currently holding no opinion. Among independents, 30% prefer Hinojosa to 24% who prefer the incumbent, while more than a third (35%) have no opinion.
In the race for Lt. Governor, where incumbent Dan Patrick is also seeking a fourth term, 35% of Texas voters prefer Patrick while 31% indicated support for State Representative Vikki Goodwin, with about a third of voters either not holding an opinion (27%) or preferring “someone else” (7%). In the lower visibility race for what is nonetheless one of the most powerful offices in the state, 1 in 4 Democrats (25%) and slightly more than 1 in 5 Republicans (22%) have yet to publicly back their party’s (likely) respective candidates.
Independents are even more inattentive to the race: Almost two thirds either have no opinion (46%) or say they would vote for someone else (19%). Among those independents with a preference among the two major party candidates, Goodwin leads Patrick 21% to 13%.
In generic ballots for candidates for both the Texas Legislature and the U.S. Congress Republicans held small advantages, suggesting the competitiveness of the current environment. Asked to consider their generic party preference for the Texas legislature, 44% favored the GOP candidate, while 40% preferred the Democratic candidate — 16% either hadn’t thought about it (9%), had no opinion (5%), or preferred “someone else.” Asked to consider the same generic choice for the U.S. Congress in their district, 43% chose the Republican candidate and 41% chose the Democrat.
The poll’s sample was not designed to allow for meaningful estimates of ballot match-ups in the statewide primary run-off elections, a fraught exercise even with sampling strategies designed for such contests.
The poll did include favorability ratings of several candidates engaged in statewide primary run-offs, reported below.
Favorability Ratings: Texas Republicans
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| Overall | Republicans | Strong Republicans | Conservatives | |||||||||
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | |
| John Cornyn | 31% | 43% | 27% | 50% | 23% | 26% | 59% | 18% | 23% | 40% | 27% | 24% |
| Ken Paxton | 33% | 42% | 25% | 57% | 18% | 25% | 65% | 13% | 22% | 59% | 19% | 22% |
| Mayes Middleton | 20% | 16% | 64% | 34% | 9% | 57% | 37% | 6% | 56% | 34% | 9% | 57% |
| Chip Roy | 25% | 25% | 51% | 41% | 14% | 45% | 44% | 14% | 43% | 43% | 15% | 43% |
| Greg Abbott | 46% | 44% | 10% | 78% | 14% | 8% | 88% | 9% | 4% | 78% | 14% | 7% |
| Dan Patrick | 34% | 36% | 29% | 58% | 12% | 29% | 64% | 7% | 27% | 61% | 13% | 26% |
| Don Huffines | 22% | 19% | 58% | 38% | 8% | 55% | 41% | 5% | 53% | 39% | 8% | 52% |
| Results reported among registered voters. | ||||||||||||
Favorability Ratings: Texas Democrats
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| Overall | Democrats | Strong Democrats | Liberals | |||||||||
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | |
| James Talarico | 39% | 29% | 32% | 72% | 7% | 21% | 77% | 6% | 18% | 72% | 8% | 20% |
| Gina Hinojosa | 30% | 17% | 52% | 59% | 6% | 34% | 68% | 5% | 28% | 59% | 8% | 32% |
| Vikki Goodwin | 17% | 12% | 72% | 25% | 7% | 69% | 30% | 5% | 65% | 25% | 8% | 66% |
| Nathan Johnson | 16% | 10% | 74% | 22% | 8% | 69% | 26% | 6% | 67% | 26% | 9% | 66% |
| Joe Jaworski | 16% | 10% | 74% | 23% | 8% | 70% | 28% | 7% | 65% | 25% | 10% | 66% |
| Sarah Eckhardt | 16% | 11% | 73% | 22% | 8% | 71% | 28% | 6% | 67% | 24% | 8% | 67% |
| Results reported among registered voters. | ||||||||||||
Presidential Approval Ratings
Approval of Donald Trump’s performance as president is widely expected to shape the Fall election environment. In Texas, Trump remains in net-negative territory, where the April poll found 45% of Texas voters approving and 50% disapproving, essentially unchanged from February, when the same share approved and 49% disapproved.
Trump’s support remains steady among Texas Republicans at 82% approval with 13% disapproval, though he is deep underwater among independents, among whom only 20% approve while 73% disapprove. Democrats are familiarly negative (7% approve, 91% disapprove).
Among the closely watched Latino electorate, who are widely credited with helping Trump and Republicans win in Texas in 2024, 41% approved of Trump’s job performance while 55% disapproved.
In ratings of his performance in specific issue areas, Trump remains strongest and in net-positive territory in his areas of historic strength: 52% approve and 40% disapprove of his handling of border security; 48% approve and 43% disapprove of his handling of immigration, and 44% approve and 40% disapprove of his handling of crime and public safety.
But in areas related to the economy, which the poll reveals are important to the largest shares of Texas voters, Trump’s ratings are underwater. Most prominently, he is in net-negative territory on his handling of the economy (36% approve, 52% disapprove), of inflation and prices (33% approve, 56% disapprove, his most negative rating), of government ethics (35% approve, 48% disapprove), and of health care (34% approve, 46% disapprove).
The second-term president is also underwater in estimations of his handling of foreign policy (38% approve, 46% disapprove), the worst Texas rating in this area of his second term. Here, the poll finds record high disapproval and record low approval going back nine surveys between June 2019 and today.
The election environment: issues on voters agenda, persistent wrong track evaluations
The political landscape within which the 2026 election is unfolding continues to show a shifting issue terrain likely to impact the election, as well as a worsening of the persistently negative views of the trajectory of both the state and the country.
Nearly a quarter of Texans cited “inflation/higher prices” (15%) or “the economy” (9%) as the most important problems facing the state, while 12% chose either “immigration” (8%) or “border security” (4%), and 10% “political corruption/leadership.”
Through the lens of party identification, 21% of Democrats see “political corruption/leadership” as the most important problem in a state in which Republicans have dominated elections and state government for decades, though the combined share choosing the economy and inflation add up to a slightly higher share, 24%. (One might add the 5% who cited “gas prices” to Democrats focused on economic woes.)
The most notable aspect of Republican perceptions of problems facing the state is the continued decline in the share citing immigration or border security as Texas’s most important problem. While a fifth (20%) cited “immigration” (13%) or “border security” (7%), this represented the lowest share in over a decade of polling, during which these two items routinely made up more than 50% of the GOP responses. The combined shares of Texas Republicans citing the economy (10%) and “inflation/higher prices” (12%) were slightly higher than the combined immigration, border security shares (22% versus 20%), with another 4% citing “gas prices.”
Economic issues were an even more dominant concern among independents, among whom more than a third saw “inflation/higher prices” (22%) or the economy (13%) as the most important issues facing the state, along with another 4% citing “gas prices.” Among these dedicated non-partisans, 9% cited “political corruption/leaderhip,” while 8% combined to cite either “immigration” (5%) or “border security” (3%).
Economic concerns dominate measures of the most important problems facing the country even more: 30% of Texas voters say either “inflation/higher prices” (18%) or “the economy” (12%) are the most important national problems, followed by “political corruption/leadership” (16%) and “Middle East instability/War In Iran” (8%). “Immigration” (5%) and “border security” (1”) also receded in salience in these national assessments. The combination of “inflation/higher prices” and “the economy” was the leading concern among Democrats (31%), Republicans (26%), and independents (29%). The shares citing “political corruption/leadership” remained in double figures among both Democrats (27%) and independents (16%), but chosen by a smaller share of Republicans (8%).
As the issue terrain of the election year takes shape, views of the direction of the U.S. and Texas remain in net negative territory, especially the former. More Texas voters see the U.S. on the wrong track (59%) than see the country headed in the right direction (34%), with 7% holding no opinion. Views of Texas are less lopsided, but also in net negative territory, with the 47% who see the state on the wrong track outweighing the 42% who see the state headed in the right direction. The difference between assessments of the nation and of Texas is one glimpse of how the negative national political environment for Republican incumbents might be somewhat deflected, though by no means ameliorated, by a slightly less, intensely negative mood at the state level.
But overall, as with the economic assessments captured in the poll, the right direction/wrong track numbers suggest tentative improvements in voters' views of the general state of affairs evident in December and February polling stalled out in April among renewed economic worries exacerbated by the current U.S. military venture in Iran.
Views of elections and voting
As state and local officials continue to maneuver around voting and election rules, and President Trump continues to pressure Congress to pass legislation that would impose new national voting restrictions, the poll revealed continuing and strong partisan patterns in Texas voters' views of voting rules and practices in the state.
Asked whether “the rules for voting in Texas should be made more strict, less strict, or left as they are now,” the plurality (43%) favored the status quo, while a third (33%) wanted those rules made more strict, and 16% preferred the rules loosened. Responses were strongly shaped by partisanship: more than half of Texas Republicans favored making voting rules “more strict,” while a third favored leaving them “as they are now” and only 7% favored less strict voting rules. Views among Democrats differed significantly from those of Republicans, but were not a mirror image: a majority of Democrats, 54%, favored leaving the rules as they are now, while about 30% wanted them less strict and 12% wanted them more strict.
Two other questions in the April poll illuminate how beliefs about voting and elections differ, and likely heavily influence views about election rules. When asked, “How often do you think that people who are eligible to vote in Texas elections are prevented from voting,” 17% replied “never,” 28% said “rarely,” another 28% chose “sometimes”, and 14% said “frequently” (12% had no opinion). In a reflection of the common Democratic accusations of “voter suppression” leveled against Republican lawmakers in Texas, Democrats were three times as likely to reply either “sometimes” (41%) or “frequently” (26%) as Republicans (20% said “sometimes,” only 5% said “frequently”). While 7% of Democrats said eligible people were “never” prevented from voting, 27% of Republicans said the same.
On the flip side, another question asked “How often do you think that people who are not eligible vote in Texas elections”: 14% said “never” and nearly a third (32%) said “rarely,” while 26% said “sometimes” and 16% thought ineligible voters cast ballots in Texas elections “frequently.” The partisan differences were again readily apparent, this time reflecting common Republican accusations of widespread voter fraud. Well more than half of Republican voters, 62%, think ineligible voters cast ballots in Texas either “sometimes” (38%) or “frequently (24%), while the respective share of Democrats who believe the same makes up only a third of the Republican share (13% and 8%, respectively).
Hovering over the fundamental differences in partisans’ views of voting is the lingering belief among a majority of Texas Republicans that Joe Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 presidential election. When asked, “Regardless of who you voted for, do you think Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election,” 53% said “yes,” while 34% said “no,” and 12% were unsure. Among Republicans, 61% thought Biden’s election was not legitimate, while 21% believed it was, and 18% didn’t know. Not surprisingly, 92% of Democrats thought Biden won legitimately. While the majority of independents, 59%, view Biden’s win as legitimate, more than 1 in 5 (22%) thought it was not.
April Job Approval
Gov. Greg Abbott: 46% approve, 43% disapprove.
Lt. Gov Dan Patrick: 35% approve, 38% disapprove.
Attorney General Ken Paxton: 34% approve, 42% disapprove.
Senator Ted Cruz: 40% approve, 46% diapprove.
Senator John Cornyn: 29% approve, 45% disapprove.
U.S. Congress: 23% approve, 57% disapprove.
Individual member of Congress: 39% approve, 28% disapprove.
U.S. Supreme Court: 34% approve, 41% disapprove.