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The (very) early public opinion context for the 2024 US Senate Race in Texas

July 11, 2023 | By: Jim Henson, Joshua Blank

Texas state senator Roland Gutierrez’s widely-expected announcement that he will join U.S. Congressman Colin Allred in seeking the Democratic nomination to challenge incumbent U.S. Senator Ted Cruz in 2024 sets the stage for a long campaign in what could shape up to be one of the marquee Senate races in the next election.

There will be plenty of time to parse both the Democratic primary contest and the general election once the primaries are settled. For now, we’ve compiled some early data on Ted Cruz, conditions in Texas that might broadly shape the context of the election, and some polling results that likely to shape the campaigns as they begin to unfold.

Texans’ Views of Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz Favorability ratings from June 2023

Ted Cruz Job Approval Trend

Context for Collin Allred Candidacy

Colin Allred Favorability ratings from June 2023

Context for Roland Guitierrez Candidacy

It's highly likely that the State Senator's campaign will make gun safety and how the legislature, and the Congress, have ignored majority support for stronger gun safety measures a central part of his campaign.

Approval of the legislature's handling of school safety

Confidence in what the legislature did to improve school safety (a more forward looking assessment)

Support for raising the age of purchase for any firearm from 18 to 21

Intra Party Politics

The Democratic primary race is already activating long-standing arguments among Democrats about the ideological positioning of statewide candidates.

The Democratic Primary

The Republican Primary

Texas Mood

As in 2020 and 2022, an inevitable element of any Democratic campaign will be questions about Republican stewardship of the state.

Texas right direction / wrong track from June 23 (38% right direction/49% wrong track)

Views of Texas economy ("Compared to a year ago, would you say that the Texas economy is a lot better off, somewhat better off, about the same, somewhat worse off, or a lot worse off?")

Views of Joe Biden and Donald Trump

2024 is a presidential election year, with a very high likelihood that the top of the ballot will be a rematch between the candidates in 2020.

Joe Biden Job approval

(More job approval trend data)

Donald Trump post-presidential favorability

Keywords: 2024 election Colin Allred Roland Gutierrez Ted Cruz

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