Views of the Republican Party and Candidates in Texas as the GOP Convenes in Dallas

The staging of the Republican Party’s midterm election convention in Dallas speaks to Texas’s crucial role in the national GOP’s electoral coalition, as well as to the state’s symbolic role in the conservative politics that have defined the Republican brand since the 1980’s. The event will apparently involve none of the organizational party business typically associated with the national conventions, but will feature the usual, copious speechifying and spectacle of TV age national conventions, including speeches by the President and vice president. 

Yet even as Texas seems a logical choice for the event given Republican’s dominance in state elections for the last three decades, public opinion polling shows unprecedented signs of strain in the GOP’s traditional electoral strength in the state going into this year's general election. The gathering’s location, programming, and timing all reinforce the general sense that the convention is an extended campaign event intended to shore up what most polling indicates is lagging enthusiasm among GOP voters, in part by using President Trump’s presence to boost Republican voters' interest and support. 

Most prominently, Attorney General Ken Paxton trails Democratic challenger James Talarico in most non-partisan polling in the U.S. Senate race, and Trump is sure to make an effort (on his own terms, of course) to boost Paxton’s candidacy and keep the Texas Senate seat in Republican hands. But while Paxton’s polling troubles can be attributed in part to the mismatch of his widely-recognized vulnerabilities as a top-of-the-ticket candidate and Talarico’s relative assets (particularly for a Democratic candidate in Texas), other statewide candidates are enjoying much narrower polling leads than Republicans are accustomed to in modern day Texas. In a state where Republicans have won statewide elections by double digits in good years, candidates for key statewide offices nursed middling single-digit leads in statewide polling throughout the summer. Now, the President is staging a high profile event with him at center stage at a time when his own approval numbers are sagging nationally and stagnant in Texas, whose electoral votes he won in the last three presidential elections.

Only the election will tell us how serious the consequences of these seeming strains on the Texas GOP are in the face of the expected surge in Democratic engagement in November. But as the GOP attempts to rally its forces around Donald Trump and the increasingly uneasy candidates inextricably bound to him in this mid-term election, we’ve compiled data related to the Republican Party and GOP candidates and officeholders to provide context for what unfolds at the high-profile, and unprecedented, meeting in Dallas this week. All polling data is from Texas. For more information about the polls, including detailed methodology, see the Texas Politics Project data archive.

Use the following navigation to jump to a particular section:

• Views of the Republican Party
• Views of Donald Trump
  • Trump Policy Approvals
  • Trump Traits
• Views of MAGA
• Incumbent candidate job approval trends
• GOP Candidate Favorability
  • Attorney General Ken Paxton
  • Gov. Greg Abbott
  • Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick
  • Mayes Middleton
  • Don Huffines
• Generic Ballots
• Most important problems facing the state

Views of the Republican Party

"Regardless of how you intend to vote in the 2026 election, do you feel like the Republican Party is welcoming to people like you?" 

Ideological Identification of Republican Voters

Views of Donald Trump

 

Trump Policy Approvals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump Traits

Do you think Donald Trump...  (University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Polling)
	June 2026	October 2024
has the temperament to serve effectively as president?	43	48
is honest and trustworthy?	36	41
is competent?	49	53
cares about people like you?	38	46
is a strong leader?	50	58
is knowledgeable?	49	55
is too old to be president?	49	44

Do you think Donald Trump...  (June 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Polling)
	Republicans	Independents	Democrats
has the temperament to serve effectively as president?	80	17	3
is honest and trustworthy?	70	8	2
is competent?	88	26	7
cares about people like you?	74	10	1
is a strong leader?	89	27	9
is knowledgeable?	88	27	8
is too old to be president?	17	61	87

Views of MAGA

Incumbent candidate job approval trends

Ken Paxton (as Attorney General)

Greg Abbott

Dan Patrick

GOP Candidate Favorability 

Attorney General Ken Paxton

Gov. Greg Abbott

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick

Mayes Middleton

Don Huffines

Generic Ballots

 

Most important problems facing the state