Texas 2026 U.S. Senate Poll Tracker
The table compiles non-partisan public polling in the U.S. Senate race in Texas being contested by Republican Ken Paxton, Democrat Jame Talarico, and Libertarian Ted Brown since the conclusion of the Republican primary in late May. Brown has not been included in all polls.
Updated October 18, 2026: Added Fox News Poll released October 21.
Texas 2026 U.S. Senate Election Polling
| Poll | Field Dates | Sample Size | Sample Type | MOE | Paxton | Talarico | Other | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | 10/15 - 10/19 | 1398 | LV | +/- 2.5% | 49 | 49 | Don't know 1 | Even |
| U of H / Hobby School | 10/10 - 10/15 | 2000 | LV | +/-2.19% | 46 | 48 | Brown 3, undecided 3 | Talarico +2 |
| CBS/YouGov | 10/8 - 10/16 | 1343 | LV | 3.5% | 49 | 51 | N/A | Talarico +2 |
| Marist | 10/8 - 10/11 | ? | LV | +/-4.9% | 45 | 47 | Other 2, undecided 4, no response 2 | Talarico +2 |
| Recon MR/Siena | 10/5 - 10/8 | 617 | LV | +/- 4.4 | 44 | 48 | Someone else 3, refused 5 | Talarico +4 |
| YouGov (in house) | 9/28 - 10/5 | 3625 | LV | +/- 3% | 44 | 50 | Other 3, not sure 2, will not vote in this race 1 | Talarico +6 |
| UT/Texas Politics Project | 9/25 - 10/5 | 861 | LV | +/- 3.34 | 47 | 50 | Ted Brown 1, someone else 2 | Talarico +3 |
| Fox News | 9/24 - 9/28 | 881 | LV | +/-3% | 49 | 51 | n/a | Talarico +2 |
| New York Times/Sienna | 9/21 - 9/30 | 615 | LV | +/-4% | 43 | 49 | Other <.5, Unsure % | Talarico +6 |
| NPR/Marist | 9/17 - 9/20 | 1139 | RV | +/-4.4% | 44 | 50 | Other 2; Undecided 4 | Talarico +6 |
| TSU/YouGov | 9/15 - 9/19 | 1800 | LV | +/-2.31% | 46 | 47 | Brown 3; Unsure 4 | Talarico +1 |
| Emerson College/Nexstar | 9/12 - 9/14 | 1000 | LV | +/-3.0% | 46 | 47 | Brown 2; Undecided 4. | Talarico +1 |
| Recon MR | 9/8 - 9/11 | 614 | LV | +/-4.3% | 43 | 49 | Someone else 3; Wouldn't vote 1; DK 4 | Talarico +6 |
| NBC News/Mason-Dixon | 9/8-9/10 | 625 | LV | +/- 4.0 | 43 | 46 | other/undecided 11 | Talarico + 3 |
| AARP Texas Voter Survey | 8/30 - 9/1 | 895 | LV | +/-3.0% | 44 | 49 | Other 0; Undecided 8 | Talarico +4 |
| Televisa/Univision | 8/27 - 9/4 | 1000 | RV | +/- 3.6% | 43 | 48 | Other 1; DK 7 | Talarico +5 |
| UT/Texas Politics Project | 8/5 - 8/13 | 1200 | RV | +/-2.8% | 39 | 42 | Brown 3; someone else/dk 15 | Talarico +3 |
| Emerson College | 8/9 - 8/10 | 1000 | LV | +/-3.0% | 47 | 46 | Someone else 2; Unsure 5. | Paxton +1 |
| Bush School/Recon MR | 7/27 - 7/30 | 619 | LV | +/-4.7% | 43 | 47 | Unsure/someone else 10 | Talarico +4 |
| TSU/YouGov | 7/27 - 7/30 | 1200 | LV | +/-2.8% | 45 | 47 | Brown 2, unsure/someone else 6 | Talarico +2 |
| FOX News | 7/23 - 7/27 | 1006 | RV | +/-3.0% | 48 | 51 | Unsure/someone else 1 | Talarico +3 |
| NY Times/Siena | 6/19 - 6/27 | 656 | LV | +/-4.5% | 47 | 47 | Unsure/someone else 7 | Even |
| UT/Texas Politics Project | 6/5 - 6/12 | 1200 | RV | +/-2.8% | 43 | 42 | Brown 3, Unsure/someone else 7 | Paxton +1 |
| Quantus Insights | 6/3 - 6/4 | 800 | LV | +/-3.5% | 45 | 43 | Someone else 4, unsure 7 | Paxton +2 |
| Bush School/Recon MR | 6/1 - 6/4 | 807 | LV | +/-4.0% | 46 | 46 | Someone else/unsure 9 | Even |
Previous Updates
- October 18, 2026: Added CBS/YouGover poll released October 18
- October 14, 2026: Added UT/Texas Politics Project, ReconMR/Siena, Marist results.
- October 6, 2026: Added YouGov in house poll relesed October 6
- October 3, 2026: Added New York Times/Sienna Poll released October 3.Updated October 1, 2026: Added NPR/Marist Poll released September 23.
- September 23, 2026: Added NPR/Marist Poll released September 23.
- September 22, 2026: Added TSU/YouGov poll released September 22.
- September 21, 2026: Added NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll released September 21.
- September 17, 2026: Added Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media and Recon MR poll released September 17
- September 10, 2026: Added Televisa/Univision Polling survey released September 9 and AARP Texas Voter Survey released September 10.
- August 13, 2026: Added Emerson College Polling survey released August 13.
- August 7, 2026: Added Bush School/Recon MR Pulse PollTM released August 7.
- August 5, 2026: First compilation of public polling in the U.S. Senate election for the seat currently occupied by John Cornyn. Check back for updates as new statewide polling is released.