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New UT/Texas Politics Project Poll Finds Talarico Leading Paxton, Abbott Leading Hinojosa, Continued Resistance to Data Centers

| By: James Henson, Joshua Blank

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A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll finds 42% of Texas voters preferring Democrat James Talarico and 39% planning to vote for Republican Ken Paxton in the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas, with the remaining 3% opting for Libertarian Ted Brown and 14% expressing no preference. The poll found Republican candidates leading by single digits in the other major statewide races included in the survey, amidst persistent negative views of the economy and continued opposition to the construction of data centers.

In the trial ballot for governor, incumbent Greg Abbott leads his Democratic challenger, Austin-area state representative Gina Hinojosa, 45% to 40%, with the remaining 3% preferring Libertarian Pat Dixon, 2% choosing an unspecified “someone else,” and 10% unable to express an opinion. In his most recent successful campaign for governor in 2022, Abbott defeated his Democratic opponent Beto O’Rourke 54.8% to 43.9%.

Republican candidates held similar leads in other trial ballots included in the poll:

  • Lt. Governor: Patrick 42% (R); Goodwin 35% (D); Cristo 4% (L); Someone else/DK 18%
  • Attorney General: Middleton 40% (R); Johnson 35% (D); Oxford 3% (L); Someone else/DK 22%
  • Comptroller: Huffines 40% (R); Eckhardt 34% (D); Echavaria-Garza 1% (L); Faizi 1% (G); Someone else/DK 23%
  • Generic U.S. Congress: Republican candidate 48%; Democratic candidate 44%; Someone else 2%
  • Generic Texas Legislature: Republican candidate 49%; Democratic candidate 43%; Someone else 2%

The poll was conducted August 5-13, 2026, among 1200 registered voters in Texas. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.83% (3.58% when accounting for the weighted sample). Data collection was conducted by YouGov over the internet. See the summary document for detailed methodology.

For the second consecutive survey, a majority of Texans, 57%, said that they oppose the construction of a data center in their community, while only 30% expressed support, with the remaining 14% expressing no opinion. These results are statistically indistinguishable from June polling, when 29% supported and 56% opposed local data center construction.

Republicans remained closely divided on the subject in August – 45% supported while 43% opposed local data center construction. Both Democrats and independents remain decisive in their opposition: only 15% of the former supported data center construction in their communities, while 75% were opposed, including 59% “strongly” opposed. Among independents, 19% are supportive, with 54% opposed. Among rural voters, who have been among the most vocal opponents to local data center construction, 1 in 4 (25%) expressed support, while 60% were opposed (44% “strongly”). Suburban Texans join their rural neighbors in opposing data centers: in the state’s politically critical suburbs, 26% support data construction in their area, while 60% expressed opposition, with the 44% “strongly opposed” matching the distribution of negative sentiment in rural areas.

Texans’ concerns about the cost of living continue to fuel their negative views of the economy, which persist across successive UT/Texas Politics Project statewide surveys. Nearly one in three voters (29%) cite either “inflation/higher prices” or “the economy” as the most important problem facing Texas, with an even higher share, 35%, citing these issues as the most important national problems. Democrats are about as likely as Republicans to see the urgency of prices and economy at the state level (29% compared to 28%, respectively), with independents similarly focused on these issues (30%).

Asked to share how personally concerned they are about several economic areas, more than half of Texans reported being “very concerned” about “the price of food and consumer goods” (67%), “the cost of healthcare” (64%), “the price of gasoline and energy” (59%), and “the cost of housing” (55%). These concerns inform generally negative views of the national economy: only 24% said the economy is better off “compared to one year ago,” with the majority, 54%, saying it is worse, and 19% rating it as being ‘about the same.” Texans’ assessments of their personal economic circumstance compared to a year prior also remain in net-negative territory, though they are less negative overall than their assessments of the national economy: 23% reported being better off than a year prior, while a plurality, 42%, reported being worse off, with a third (33%) reporting that they and their families are economically “about the same.”

For more detailed results and analysis related to specific subjects covered in the poll, click on the links below.

2026 Election

As summer draws to a close and attention to the election increases, nearly two-thirds of Texas voters say that they are either ‘extremely enthusiastic’ (41%) or ‘very enthusiastic’ (24%) about voting in the upcoming November Elections (largely similar to enthusiasm levels captured during the last midterm election in August 2022 UT/TxPP polling).

While the topline numbers may look similar, there’s a clear difference in partisan enthusiasm at this point in the race compared to 2022. While Democratic enthusiasm levels are comparable at this point in time to the prior mid-term election cycle, in August 2022 polling, a majority of Republicans, 52%, said that they were ‘extremely enthusiastic’ about voting in that midterm election, while in August 2026 polling, only 39% are equally enthused.

U.S. Senate

Looking beneath the topline of James Talarico’s 42% to 39% lead over Ken Paxton in the poll, Talarico’s share of the Democratic vote, 91%, is larger than the 79% of Republicans who expressed their commitment to Paxton. Among independents, 37% prefer Talarico compared to 11% who prefer Paxton, with a plurality, 43%, expressing no preference and 9% preferring either Libertarian Ted Brown (5%) or an unspecified “someone else” (4%).

In addition to the trial ballot, the survey also asked respondents to evaluate how well each of five traits described each of the major party candidates (“honest and trustworthy,” “competent,” “cares about people like you,” “a strong leader,” and “knowledgable”). While the overall responses were strongly influenced by the tendency of partisans to attribute more virtue to their preferred candidate than to the other party’s nominee, partisans’ views of the relative strengths of their own candidates shed some light on how each candidate is viewed by their base.

Overall, evaluations of Talarico’s traits are more positive than views of Paxton’s in all five dimensions, and more intensely so. The trait most frequently attributed to Talarico was "knowledgeable", with 51% saying it fit Talarico either “very well” (32%) or “somewhat well” (19%), and 27% thinking it fit the Austin-area state representative “not very well” (7%) or “not at all” (20%). Talarico’s assessments were all net positive (that is, the share judging that each term described him “very well” or “somewhat well” was greater than the share saying the terms fit him “not very well” or “not at all”), and varied within a relatively narrow band, as the table below illustrates.

Share of registered voters in Texas who say each of the following describes the U.S. Senate candidates "very well" or "somewhat well" 
(August 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
 

Ken Paxton

 James Talarico
  All Republicans Independents Democrats All Republicans Independents Democrats
Honest and trustworthy 33 60 15 6 46 21 35 82
Competent 42 75 22 9 49 25 39 86
Cares about people like you 35 63 16 6 47 21 36 83
A strong leader 42 72 19 10 47 21 36 83
Knowledgeable 46 78 25 14 51 27 41 85
Results reported among registered voters. Cell percentages represent the share of each respondent group who said that trait/characteristic describes the Senate candidate either "very well" or "somewhat well."

Democratic assessments of Talarico are strongly positive across all five of the dimensions tested, with little variance: The share attributing positive characteristics to him land in a narrow range between 82% (“honest and trustworthy”) and 86% (“competent”), and the positive assessments are largely intense: that is, well more than half of Texas Democrats said each of these positive characteristics fit Talarico “very well.”

Republican assessments of how well these qualities describe Ken Paxton were also all net positive, though his partisans’ positive assessments were lower, less intense, and varied in a somewhat wider range than Democrats’ views of Talarico. Republicans judged Paxton most positively in two dimensions that are likely a reflection of his long tenure as an elected official: 78% conveyed that "knowledgeable" describes Paxton either “very well” (43%) or “somewhat well” (35%), while three quarters (75%) said “competent” describes the current Attorney General either “very well” (42%) or “somewhat well” (33%). 

Texas Republicans’ assessments of whether Paxton was aptly described as “honest and trustworthy” were the lowest of the set, though a clear majority, 60%, said the terms describe him either “very well” (24%) or “somewhat well” (36%). Among the same partisans, 29% said that the terms “honest and trustworthy” fit Paxton “not very well (15%) or “not at all” (14%), likely an artifact of Paxton’s well-publicized legal and ethical problems, which contributed to his impeachment by the Republican-led Texas House in 2023. He was subsequently acquitted of the impeachment charges by the Texas Senate.

Gubernatorial Race

Just two months out from the election, Gov. Greg Abbott’s 5-point polling lead over State Representative Gina Hinojosa provides yet another suggestion of the surprisingly challenging election environment for Republicans in Texas heading towards November. Abbott’s margins of victory over Democrats in his previous gubernatorial elections were 10.9% in 2022, 12.3% in 2018, and 20.4% in 2014.

Compared to the close U.S. Senate race at the top of the ballot, Gov. Abbott’s 45% to 40% advantage over Hinojosa reflects Abbott’s comparatively better standing among both Republican and independent voters compared to Paxton. Both Abbott and Hinojosa demonstrate strong support from their respective bases: 89% of Democrats favor Hinojosa, with 8% expressing no preference, while 86% of Republicans favor Abbott, with 4% opting for the Libertarian Ted Dixon and 7% either preferring “someone else” (2%) or expressing no preference. (In the Senate race, 79% of Republicans committed to Paxton in the trial ballot item.)

Abbott trailed Hinojosa among independents, with 17% opting for the incumbent and 37% preferring the Democrat, while 2% said that they would be supporting the Libertarian candidate Pat Dixon, 6% said “someone else,” and the plurality, 38%, registered no opinion in the still unfolding contest.

Amidst much speculation about the possible electoral impact of discontent in predominantly rural, and predominantly Republican, areas of the state, 61% of rural Texans said that they prefer Abbott in the trial ballot while less than a quarter, 23%, opted for Hinojosa. This is an improvement for Abbott compared to June polling, when he led Hinojosa by a narrower 55% to 31% margin among rural voters.

However, Abbott’s support has slipped in the suburbs since June, beset by dissatisfaction with high profile issues such as data centers and, more broadly, prices and the economy. In the most recent poll, Hinojosa held a 4-point edge over Abbott, 44% to 40%. In June, Abbott held the advantage, 46% to 41%. The smaller size of the suburban subsample, which has a margin of error of approximately 3.88%, should prevent drawing too strong a conclusion for the shift. But the shift bears watching, given the substantial share of Texas voters living in the state’s suburbs and the large share of suburban Republicans in the GOP coalition.

Notably, and problematic for Democratic efforts to win the party’s first statewide race in over 20 years, Hinojosa has polled statistically even with Abbott in the state’s urban areas in both the June and August polls (44% to 43% in June; 45% to 43% in August).

Other Statewide Races and Generic Ballots

The trial ballots summarized earlier found Republican candidates enjoying single digit leads over Democrats in the races for Lt. Governor (Dan Patrick 42%, Vikki Goodwin 35%), Attorney General (Mayes Middleton 40%, Nathan Johnson 35%), and Comptroller of Public Accounts (Huffines 41%, Sarah Eckhardt 34%). Polling in these races were statistically indistinguishable from trial ballots in June 2026 UT/TxPP polling.

Favorability ratings of candidates in these races suggest that the non-incumbent candidates (i.e. everyone except Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick) remain relatively unfamiliar to most Texans. For most of these candidates, the share with opinions of them has crept up incrementally (at best) over the course of the election year.

2026 Candidate Favorability Ratings
(August 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
  Overall Republicans Independents Democrats
  Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable
Greg Abbott 45 45 81 11 21 55 7 85
James Talarico 42 32 14 60 36 14 80 3
Ken Paxton 34 47 61 21 19 48 5 80
Gina Hinojosa 34 23 11 43 23 12 67 3
Dan Patrick
 31 39 57 13 12 48 6 71
Mayes Middleton 20 18 37 9 6 26 3 28
Don Huffines  20 18 37 7 6 18 5 34
Vikki Goodwin 18 11 9 15 14 7 31 7
Nathan Johnson 14 10 11 13 13 5 20 7
Sarah Eckhardt 14 10 10 14 12 9 23 6
Results reported among registered voters.

Assessments of President Donald Trump

Donald Trump remains in net negative job approval territory for the 8th straight poll since returning to office for his second term, and with a majority disapproving for the fourth time over that same time period, including in the most recent UT/TxPP poll conducted in June.

The president received net-positive job approval ratings in only two areas: border security (49% approve; 40% disapprove) and immigration (46% approve; 44% disapprove). In each of the 11 other issue areas tested, more voters disapproved than approved, with majorities disapproving of his handling of government ethics (51%); the conflict with Iran (51%); healthcare (52%); government spending (53%); and most notably, the economy (54%) and inflation and prices (57%).

While Republicans maintain overwhelming net approval ratings for the president across each of the areas assessed, at least one in five GOP voters disapprove of the president’s handling of healthcare (20%), the economy (20%), government spending (21%), and inflation and prices (28%). Democrats continue to hold overwhelmingly disapproving attitudes across each of the issue areas, while among independents, more than 60% disapprove of the president’s handling of trade negotiations (60%), government ethics (62%); the conflict between Israel and Palestine (63%); the economy (64%); inflation and prices (65%); and the conflict with Iran (68%).

On this last result, it’s notable that the poll also found a majority of Texans, 54%, saying that the U.S. should end the conflict with Iran now, as opposed to continuing the conflict until Iran gives up more. While a slight majority of Republicans, 56%, think that the U.S. should continue the conflict, 27% say that the U.S. should end the conflict now, along with 63% of independents and 83% of Democrats.

Assessments of State Leadership on Issues

Asked to assess the job performed of state leaders and the Legislature in 17 different policy areas, more voters approved than disapproved in only 3: border security (48% approve; 35% disapprove); immigration (43% approve; 41% disapprove); and crime/public safety (40% approve; 37% disapprove).

At the same time, a majority of Texas voters disapproved of state leadership’s handling of three policy areas: political corruption and ethics (51% disapprove; 25% approve); healthcare (51% disapprove; 25% approve); and inflation and prices (54% disapprove; 24% approve). Here, the changing nature of the issue landscape and the issues voters are paying attention to is important. Amidst relative approval for the border and immigration related policies enacted by state leaders and disapproval of their handling of inflation and prices, those same voters are paying significantly more attention to the latter issue according to the problems they identify as most important.

Other notable gaps in Texans’ assessments come in response to statewide leaderships’ handling of data centers (24% approve; 45% disapprove); housing (23% approve; 47% disapprove); property taxes (27% approve; 47% disapprove); and marijuana/THC laws (22% approve; 46% disapprove).

Asked specifically about the governor’s performance, Gov. Abbott dipped slightly into net negative territory: 43% approved of the job he is doing as governor while 46% disapproved, with 8% issuing a neutral judgment and 3% expressing no opinion. Among Republicans, 78% approved of his job performance (45% strongly), with 13% disapproving (approximately the mid-point of his negative ratings among Republicans since mid-2015). Democrats’ views of Abbott remain in the low end of his historic ratings: only 5% approved while 86% disapproved - 78% strongly. The 23% of independents who approved of the job Abbott is doing are near the low-end of the time series data, representing less than half of those who approved of his job performance at his historic high among this group (54%), in February 2018, shortly after being reelected to his second term as governor.

The Election Climate

As campaign expenditures increase in the major races and the traditional post-Labor Day uptick in election activity looms on the horizon, the election climate in Texas remains defined by Texas voters’ focus on economic issues as the most important problems facing Texas and the U.S.; predominantly negative views of the path of both the country and (slightly lesser so) the state; continuing signs of negative partisanship; brand problems for both parties; and the increasing attraction of partisans to the most militant wings of their respective parties.

Texas voters continue to focus on economic issues when asked to consider the most important problem facing the state. The predominance of economic concerns continues to displace the long-persistance of immigration and border security in Texans’ views of the state’s most important problems. The two time-series graphics below illustrate the decline of the salience of immigration and border security among all partisan groups in Texas, most consequently among Republicans.

In what is at least partially likely to be a reflection of these persistent economic concerns, Texans on balance see both the U.S. and Texas headed in the wrong direction. A majority, 57% see the country on the wrong track, with slightly more than a third (35%) saying that the U.S. is headed in the right direction. Democrats are overwhelmingly negative (93% wrong track); Republicans, on balance, lean toward a more optimistic view, with 66% seeing the country headed in the right direction, though nearly a quarter, 24%, say the U.S. is on the wrong track as the midterm elections loom. Independents are predominantly negative (74% wrong track, 7% right direction), though not quite as lopsidedly as Democrats.

While Texas Democrats may feel buoyed by the potential impact of this largely negative sentiment given GOP control of both the state and federal governments, attitudes towards the Democratic Party remain deeply negative in the state. A majority of Texas voters, 51%, hold an unfavorable view towards the Democratic Party, with a third (33%) holding a favorable view. These results are comparable with assessments taken over the last decade, but worse than ratings of the party heading into the last midterm election in 2022, when 40% held a favorable view of the Democratic Party and 49% held an unfavorable view in October polling on the eve of that election.

While also in net-negative territory, views of the Republican Party were significantly better, with 42% holding a favorable view and 46% holding an unfavorable view. The net favorability rating of -4, is near the better end of the historical average, with net favorable ratings for the state’s dominant party only registering positively in 2 surveys out of 24 since November 2015. (Note: Democrats, like Republicans, hold exceedingly negative views of the other party, and independents hold negative views of both, leading to the overall results.)

In addition to the major party brands, the survey also assessed Texas voter attitudes towards the Make America Great Again movement and democratic socialism, respectively. Overall, 38% of Texas voters said that they had a favorable view of the MAGA movement with 50% saying that they have an unfavorable view. That 50% represents a 5 point increase since February 2026, and a continual uptick in unfavorable opinions towards the MAGA movement across four surveys. Among Republicans, 72% hold a favorable view of the MAGA movement, with 13% holding an unfavorable view (compared to 82% who hold a favorable view of the Republican party, and 10% who hold an unfavorable view). A majority of independents (60% favorable; 10% unfavorable) and Democrats (93% unfavorable; 3% favorable) hold unfavorable views of the MAGA movement.

Asked their view of democratic socialism, 29% expressed a favorable impression while 45% expressed an unfavorable opinion, largely similar to June 2026 polling when the question was first asked (29% favorable; 46% unfavorable). A majority of Democrats, 60%, hold a favorable view of democratic socialism while 8% hold an unfavorable view. Among Independents, a plurality, 37%, hold an unfavorable view, while 18% have a favorable opinion of democratic socialism. Seventy-nine percent of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Democratic socialism.

Policy Attitudes

Data Centers

After a summer in which voters’ opposition to the construction of data centers in Texas and in other states across the country have propelled the issue onto the national political agenda, the August poll finds Texas voters just as opposed to “the construction of a data center in your community” as they were in the June UT/TxPP Poll.

In general, do you support or oppose the construction of a data center in your community?
(University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
  Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don't know/No opinion TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE NET
August 2026 10 20 16 41 14 30 57 -27
June 2026 9 20 14 42 16 29 56 -27
Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The August survey also explored Texans’ expectations about the impact of “building more data centers” in 13 different areas. Texans were asked, “In general, do you think that building more data centers will have a positive impact, negative impact, or no impact on each of the following…” Despite significant opposition to data center construction, views were more positive than negative in 7 of the 13 areas tested. While the items in the net-positive group slightly outnumbered the items in the net-negative group, the net-negative views were more intense, as indicated by the frequency of the “large negative effect” responses making up the plurality of the responses to most of those items. 

For the most part, Texas voters’ positive expectations clustered around the macrolevel economic domains. The following areas generated net-positive responses overall (ranked in descending order), with only one item eliciting positive expectations from more than 50%:

The remaining 6 items elicited net-negative responses. This group of responses included state issues that have been the focus of policymaking efforts in the legislature over the last decade (for example, the state’s water supply, the reliability of the grid, and consumer energy costs). They also included a mixture of economic and non-economic local impacts. Most of the items that generated more negative than positive responses conveyed more intensely negative sentiment compared to the intensity expressed in the net-positive responses. That is, in the responses to 5 of the 6 members of this group, the plurality response was “large negative impact.” (Those results are noted below.)

Results among key subgroups largely resemble the patterns in the more general question about the support for data center construction. Republicans are generally more likely than both Democrats and independents to expect a positive than a negative impact from building more data centers. Republicans anticipated positive impacts in 8 of the 13 areas, while independents expected positive impacts in only three, with Democrats positive about only one area (access to new technologies). All three groups expressed net-negative expectations about the impact of data center impacts on local energy bills, the reliability of the water supply, the reliability of the electric grid, the natural environment nearby, and people’s quality of life nearby.  

Urban Texans have the most positive expectations about the impact of building more data centers — they expressed net-positive views in 8 of the 13 categories. The comparatively negative views in the suburbs and rural areas are nearly identical — both groups have net-positive expectations in only 4 of the 13 areas included in the survey.

Asked about the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy, more Texas voters expected a negative impact (46%) than expected a positive impact (32%), while 5% expected no impact and 18% had no opinion. While these responses were slightly more positive than in the June poll, the differences were too small to be statistically meaningful. (In June, expectations were 29% positive and 49% negative.)

Other policies

The poll also checked in on a set of policy items likely to influence the political environment as summer gives way (soon, one hopes) to the fall election season. 

Asked to rate the quality of K-12 public school education, 8% rated public schools “excellent” and 35% rated them “good,” while 30% rendered a “not very good” judgment and 13% rated Texas schools “terrible.”

As children head back to school across Texas, 71% of Texas voters said that government “should require parents to have their children vaccinated against infections diseases,” while 14% disagreed, with 15% expressing no opinion.

In addition, the poll asked a handful of questions from the deep UT/TxPP time series about immigration and border security attitudes.

Job Approvals

State and federal job approvals:

Keywords: 2026 election Border Security Data centers Economy Immigration Macroeconomics Public Education Texas Economy Dan Patrick Don Huffines Gina Hinojosa Greg Abbott James Talarico Ken Paxton Mayes Middleton Nathan Johnson Sarah Eckhardt Vikki Goodwin