With the 2024 presidential candidates preparing to take the stage Thursday evening for an unprecedented June debate in what is already shaping up to be an unprecedented election, the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project polling archive — including the just released June UT/TxPP poll — provides key insights into where each candidate stands in Texas, and where each candidate stands among the key voting blocs that will determine the outcome of the election.
Below are some relevant results from the most recent UT/TxPP poll along with a presentation of important trends in Texans’ attitudes about each of the 2024 nominees. The links below will direct to the appropriate sections, while the following links will direct to all the results related to Biden, Trump, and the 2024 election in the UT/TxPP polling archive.
Trial Ballots
General attitudes (Favorability and Job Approval)
Response to Trump’s Felony Convictions
Candidate Traits
The Issues that Voters Care About
Donald Trump has maintained a relatively comfortable lead over Joe Biden in all of the polling conducted in late 2023 and early 2024. The latest UT/TxPP poll finds Biden trailing Trump by 7 points in a two-way match-up, and by 9 points in a match-up including independent and third party candidates.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 39% |
| Donald Trump | 46% |
| Someone else | 9% |
| Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion | 6% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 43% |
| Joe Biden | 34% |
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. | 8% |
| Jill Stein | 2% |
| Cornel West | 2% |
| Chase Oliver | 0% |
| Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion | 10% |
Much has been made about potential weaknesses in Biden’s support (a theme in much of the data below), but two items on the UT poll asked of Biden and Trump supporters, respectively, uncovers the nature of each’s support, with more of Biden’s voters than Trump’s saying that their vote is primarily about keeping the other candidate out of office.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| I want Joe Biden to be elected president | 53% |
| I don't want Donald Trump to be elected president | 47% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| I want Donald Trump to be elected president | 74% |
| I don't want Joe Biden to be elected president | 26% |
General attitudes (Favorability and Job Approval)
Most incumbent presidents see a decline in voters’ opinions of them throughout their terms in office, and with a race between what are, essentially, two incumbent candidates, it’s not surprising to find evaluations of each tepid at best.
Only 39% of Texans currently approve of the job Biden is doing as president, with a majority, 52%, disapproving. These results are pretty standard for Biden in Texas, a state no Democrat has won statewide in over 30 years.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 16% |
| Approve somewhat | 23% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 8% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 9% |
| Disapprove strongly | 43% |
| Don't know | 2% |
| category | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| March 2021 | 44% | 43% | 12% |
| April 2021 | 44% | 46% | 11% |
| June 2021 | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| August 2021 | 40% | 51% | 9% |
| October 2021 | 35% | 55% | 11% |
| February 2022 | 36% | 52% | 11% |
| April 2022 | 37% | 54% | 9% |
| June 2022 | 35% | 55% | 11% |
| August 2022 | 40% | 52% | 9% |
| October 2022 | 39% | 52% | 10% |
| December 2022 | 42% | 50% | 8% |
| February 2023 | 41% | 50% | 10% |
| April 2023 | 40% | 49% | 11% |
| June 2023 | 38% | 50% | 12% |
| August 2023 | 38% | 52% | 9% |
| October 2023 | 37% | 53% | 11% |
| December 2023 | 38% | 54% | 8% |
| February 2024 | 42% | 50% | 8% |
| April 2024 | 43% | 51% | 6% |
| June 2024 | 39% | 42% | 10% |
| August 2024 | 39% | 52% | 9% |
While more voters view Donald Trump favorably than approve of the job Biden is doing as president, the differences are marginal. Overall, 45% of voters say that they have a favorable opinion of Trump, compared to 49% who say they have an unfavorable opinion. Opinions of Trump have changed little since his most recent defeat in 2020.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Very favorable | 30% |
| Somewhat favorable | 15% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 6% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 8% |
| Very unfavorable | 41% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 1% |
| category | Favorable | Unfavorable | Neither/Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 2015 | 34% | 51% | 12% |
| Feb. 2016 | 29% | 59% | 9% |
| June 2016 | 31% | 56% | 10% |
| Oct. 2016 | 31% | 58% | 9% |
| Feb. 2017 | 45% | 46% | 7% |
| Oct. 2020 | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Feb. 2021 | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| June 2021 | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| Oct. 2021 | 43% | 48% | 6% |
| Feb. 2022 | 43% | 46% | 10% |
| Apr. 2022 | 45% | 47% | 7% |
| June 2022 | 42% | 48% | 11% |
| Aug. 2022 | 41% | 50% | 9% |
| Oct. 2022 | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Dec. 2022 | 42% | 48% | 11% |
| Feb. 2023 | 41% | 48% | 11% |
| Apr. 2023 | 42% | 48% | 9% |
| June 2023 | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Aug. 2023 | 41% | 51% | 8% |
| Dec. 2023 | 46% | 45% | 8% |
| Feb. 2024 | 49% | 45% | 7% |
| Apr. 2024 | 49% | 44% | 8% |
| June 2024 | 45% | 49% | 7% |
| Aug. 2024 | 49% | 48% | 4% |
Response to Trump’s Felony Convictions
The June UT/TxPP poll was in the field on the day after Donald Trump was convicted in a New York courtroom for falsifying business records in connection with payments he directed to an adult film star. The poll found that, currently, the verdict has had little impact on his support in Texas. Partisan views predominate views of the verdict, with Texas’ Republican voters indicating before the verdict that the charges were based on politics, and after the verdict, that the trial was unfair, and that, if anything, his conviction has increased their support of him.
It’s still early to estimate the impact of having a convicted felon at the top of a major party ticket, but so far, the impact appears to be minimal.
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly based on the facts | 76% | 42% | 16% |
| Mostly based on politics | 16% | 40% | 70% |
| Don't know/Unsure | 8% | 18% | 14% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, he received a fair trial | 87% | 44% | 14% |
| No, he did not receive a fair trial | 5% | 34% | 75% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 7% | 21% | 11% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Much more likely | 5% | 22% | 50% |
| Somewhat more likely | 8% | 5% | 12% |
| No impact on support | 33% | 34% | 30% |
| Somewhat less likely | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Much less likely | 47% | 25% | 4% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 4% | 11% | 2% |
When it comes to assessing the traits of the presidential candidates, both are seen as lacking by Texas voters. For Biden, more voters said the current president is knowledgeable than not (49% to 45%), the only trait in which more voters said that Biden has a trait than said he doesn’t. For Trump, more voters said that the former-president is competent than not (52% to 42%); that he is a strong leader (58% to 38%); and that he is knowledgeable (54% to 41%).
| Joe Biden | Donald Trump | |||
| Yes | No | Yes | No | |
| has the temperament to serve effectively as president? | 43% | 49% | 46% | 49% |
| is honest and trustworthy? | 40% | 52% | 36% | 55% |
| is competent? | 38% | 54% | 52% | 42% |
| cares about people like you? | 40% | 51% | 42% | 5% |
| is a strong leader? | 34% | 60% | 58% | 38% |
| is knowledgeable? | 49% | 45% | 54% | 41% |
| is too old to be president in 2025? | 64% | 28% | 33% | 58% |
Texas voters are currently more likely to say that Biden is “too old to be president in 2025” than are willing to say the same about Trump (64% to 33%, respectively).
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Yes | 64% |
| No | 28% |
| Don't know | 8% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Yes | 33% |
| No | 58% |
| Don't know | 9% |
The Issues that Voters Care About
Asked what issues the presidential candidates should be talking about during the 2024 campaign in an open-ended item, the plurality of Texas voters mentioned either the economy (18%) or inflation (14%). A little more than a fifth of voters (22%) mentioned immigration or border security related issues, while 6% mentioned issues related to abortion or, more broadly, women’s rights.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Immigration / Border security | 22% |
| The economy | 18% |
| Inflation | 14% |
| Abortion / Women’s rights | 6% |
| Democracy | 4% |
| Healthcare | 3% |
| Corruption | 3% |
| Climate change / Environment | 3% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immigration / Border security | 5% | 19% | 39% |
| The economy | 16% | 21% | 17% |
| Inflation | 11% | 17% | 16% |
| Abortion / Women’s rights | 13% | 3% | 1% |
| Democracy | 8% | 0% | 1% |
| Healthcare | 4% | 7% | 1% |
| Corruption | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| Climate change / Environment | 5% | 1% | 1% |
For President Biden, voters’ focus on the economy, inflation, and the border do not bode well for his chances in Texas, with the president receiving some of his most negative ratings on these exact issues.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 16% |
| Approve somewhat | 18% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 9% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 11% |
| Disapprove strongly | 43% |
| Don't know | 3% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 10% |
| Approve somewhat | 17% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 12% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 13% |
| Disapprove strongly | 46% |
| Don't know | 3% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 8% |
| Approve somewhat | 18% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 14% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 10% |
| Disapprove strongly | 47% |
| Don't know | 3% |