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March 14, 2019 | By:
Jim Henson,
Joshua Blank
Following principle rather than politics would require crossing Texas GOP voters who are overwhelmingly and uncompromisingly supportive of the wall, comfortable with Trump’s reliance on executive power to deliver it and still intensely supportive of his presidency.
[This post originally appeared in Tribtalk on March 13, 2019. When the Senate voted on March 14, Senators Ted Cruz and John Cornyn both voted against the resolution. Twelve Republicans joined Democrats in voting in favor of the motion, which passed 59-41.]
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Respondents were asked, "How would you rate the job Ted Cruz is doing as U.S. Senator? Would you say that you…"
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November 16, 2018 | By:
Jim Henson,
Joshua Blank
A sober assessment points to the best move for Beto O’Rourke, for Texas, and maybe for the Democratic party writ large: The most likely path for most successful statewide Texas Democrat of the 21st century to win his next election is to rejoin the fray as soon as possible by running for the other U.S. Senate seat in 2020. This would hasten the emergence of a competitive party system in the state.
The rampant speculation about a Beto for President campaign in 2020 is a fantasy borne of various combinations of Texas-centric thinking, viral Betomania, and media group think.
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October 30, 2018 | By:
Jim Henson,
Joshua Blank
The trial ballot in the contest between Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke, which found the incumbent senator leading the El Paso congressman 51 to 46 percent, provided the marquee result from the October University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. Ross Ramsey did his usual, able job rolling out the results from the trial ballots; below, find a few related observations.
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October 26, 2018 | By:
Jim Henson,
Joshua Blank
This post will be updated regularly to reflect the release of new public polls.
Most recent update: 11/2/18
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Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the Libertarian Neal Dikeman, someone else, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: "If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?" Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below.
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Respondents were asked, "Please tell us whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, neither favorable nor unfavorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of Ted Cruz."
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Respondents were asked, "Please tell us whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, neither favorable nor unfavorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of Ted Cruz."
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Respondents were asked, "How would you rate the job Ted Cruz is doing as U.S. Senator? Would you say that you…"
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October 05, 2018 | By:
Jim Henson
No one is surprised that Texas Senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz voted today to clear the way for Brett Kavanaugh’s ascension to the United States Supreme Court, and will vote in his favor tomorrow when the Senate takes the final vote. In the meantime, polling data from the University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll illuminates, at least in part, why Senators Cornyn and Cruz would support Kavanaugh even as temperament and forthrightness with Senate, and questions about his past became ever more problematic. A more thorough analysis will require new, more focused data. But in the meantime, the data at hand provide context for why the Texas Senators followed the party line once the responses to the accusations against Kavanaugh intersected with the seemingly ever-escalating partisan environment. From perceptions of discrimination to the #metoo movement to attitudes toward the court, the attitudinal landscape in Texas is marked by deeply opposed, partisan frames of references on some of the fundamental questions raised by Kavanaugh hearing and his and his defenders' responses to the objections raised to his confirmation.
