The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds a very tight race in the election for the U.S. Senate, Texas voters largely opposed to building data centers in their communities, and continuing concern about prices and the economy.
Respondents were asked, "If the 2026 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were the Republican Ken Paxton, the Democrat James Talarico, and the Libertarian Ted Brown, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?"
Respondents were asked, "Please tell us whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, neither favorable nor unfavorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Ken Paxton."
How similar is the 2026 election environment in Texas to 2018, the last statewide election in which Democrats were able to gain meaningful ground on Texas Republicans’ control of the Texas Legislature, and came within striking distance of winning some statewide races? The Texas Politics Project's deep archive of public opinion data allows us to make useful comparisons of public attitudes toward candidates and conditions in 2018 and 2026.
After a week in which Texas Republicans circled the wagons for legislative elections and national Democrats announced #txlege targets, James Henson and Joshua Blank look at the landscape for legislative races, and compare differences and similarities in public opinion in 2018 and 2026.
In the wake of run-off wins by GOP candidates like Ken Paxton, Mayes Middleton, and Bo French, James Henson and Joshua Blank talk about dynamics in both parties, and what’s comes next in the general election and in governing circles in Texas.
Despite the steady decline in his overall approval ratings nationally, trends in the President's standing among Texas Republicans remains a solid asset in GOP primaries.
James Henson and Joshua Blank join the response to the much-discussed memo from Ragnar Research's Chris Perkins on signs of sagging participation among Republican primary voters in Texas, and make some connections with the shifting politics of immigration and border security in the Texas GOP.
The main takeaway from hypothetical head-to-heads in the U.S. Senate race in Texas isn’t that Talarico is “ahead” – it’s that voter mobilization may be the main challenge to Republican success in the 2026 general election.
