Competition Remains Fierce in Both U.S. Senate Primaries in Texas, According to Latest UT/Texas Politics Project Poll.
In the primary contests ahead of the crucial November election for a U.S. Senate seat from Texas, the three-way Republican race remains likely headed to a run-off, while Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett maintains her advantage in the Democratic contest, even as State Representative James Talarico continues making inroads among a Democratic electorate to whom he was largely unknown prior to his first statewide campaign, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll.
The 72nd Texas Politics Project poll conducted since 2008 was in the field from February 2-16, 2026, prior to the start of early voting. The poll assessed the attitudes of 1300 self-declared, registered voters in the state of Texas. Results for the 2026 primary election items include an oversample of verified primary voters. The MOE for overall results is +/- 2.72% unless otherwise noted. For more information about the poll, including the questionnaire and topline results, crosstabs, methodology statement, data files, and codebook, please visit the Texas Politics Project data archive.
Republican U.S. Senate Primary
In the Republican primary, Senator John Cornyn’s effort to secure a fifth term in the face of challenges from Attorney General Ken Paxton and Congressman Wesley Hunt continues to be an uphill battle for the incumbent. Among likely primary voters, 36% preferred Paxton, 34% Cornyn, and 26% Hunt. The results in the Republican Senate trial ballot have a margin of error of plus or minus 5.24 percentage points, making the race a statistical tie between the two frontrunners. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the primary vote, state law requires a run-off between the top two finishers. The run-off would be held May 26.
Despite significant resources being spent in efforts to shape the GOP electorate’s views of two candidates who have held statewide office for a combined 48 years, views of Paxton among Republican voters have remained relatively static, if slightly more negative, at the beginning of 2026, while for Senator Cornyn, in a now familiar pattern during his election seasons, positive views of him increased among Republican voters on the eve of early voting.
Among Republican voters overall, 52% viewed Paxton favorably and 18% viewed him unfavorably, while 29% viewed him either neutrally (19%) or had no opinion (10%). The 52% viewing the current Attorney General unfavorably represents a slight decline from last year (55% in August 2025), but a significant decline from only a few years ago (66% favorable in August 2022). The same group had only slightly more negative views of Cornyn, a four-term incumbent who has held a statewide-elected office in Texas for more than three decades: 50% viewed him favorably while 21% viewed him unfavorably, with slightly less than a third of Republican voters viewing him either neutrally (19%) or having no opinion (11%). For Cornyn, the share of Republicans holding a favorable view is higher than any of the six measurements taken in 2025, and 12 points higher than in December 2025 polling, when only 38% of Republicans registered a favorable opinion of Cornyn, with 27% saying they held an unfavorable view.
Both campaigns have also run negative ads against Congressman Hunt, whose growing name recognition and stated support increases the likelihood of a May run-off in the Republican race. While Hunt remains significantly less well-known than either of the long-serving statewide incumbents he is running against, he has increased his visibility among Republican voters, and entirely in a more positive direction: 39% view him favorably, while 10% view him unfavorably, with 19% viewing him neutrally and 32% expressing no opinion. In December, 28% viewed him favorably while 11% viewed him unfavorably.
Favorability Ratings: Texas Republican Senate Primary
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| Overall | Republicans | Strong Republicans | Conservatives | |||||||||
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | |
| John Cornyn | 31% | 39% | 30% | 50% | 21% | 30% | 59% | 19% | 23% | 50% | 21% | 29% |
| Ken Paxton | 31% | 41% | 28% | 52% | 18% | 29% | 64% | 13% | 24% | 53% | 18% | 29% |
| Wesley Hunt | 24% | 21% | 55% | 39% | 10% | 51% | 45% | 10% | 45% | 39% | 10% | 51% |
| Results reported among registered voters. | ||||||||||||
Democratic U.S. Senate Primary
In the fight for the Democratic nomination to face the Republican winner in the November general election, 56% of Democratic primary voters expressed a preference for Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, while 44% chose State Representative James Talarico. The results in the Democratic primary trial ballot for the U.S. Senate race have a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
The poll was conducted prior to the controversy over Talarico’s interview with Stephen Colbert, which was distributed via YouTube and received millions of views after Colbert claimed that CBS pressured Colbert not to air the interview on the regular network broadcast of “The Late Show.” The YouTube video was viewed over 8 million times (at the time of this writing) and garnered Talarico a new round of public attention at a key moment in the primary campaign.
Crockett’s lead follows months of Texas Politics Project polling finding Crockett more widely known among Texas Democrats as Talarico labored to introduce himself to a statewide electorate to whom he was largely unknown prior to joining the race in September. The share of Democrats who had no opinion of Talarico when asked how favorably they viewed him has slowly shrunken in the interim, from 60% in August 2025, to 52% in October, to 49% in December, and down to 36% in the February survey on the eve of early voting. By comparison, Crockett entered the race with less of a need to introduce herself to primary voters: 32% of Democrats had no opinion of Crockett in August, falling to 21% in the most recent poll. More detailed views of the candidates among key groups are presented in the table below. Note that these ratings are drawn for the overall sample of registered voters rather than a likely voter estimate.
Among Democratic voters overall, 71% view Crockett favorably, while only 7% view her unfavorably, with 9% neutral and 12% expressing no opinion. Democratic views of Talarico reflect his status as the less well-known of the two candidates: 59% view him favorably, while 6% view him unfavorably, while 15% express a neutral view and 21% have no opinion.
Favorability Ratings: Texas Democratic Senate Primary
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| Overall | Democrats | Strong Democrats | Liberals | |||||||||
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | |
| Jasmine Crockett | 39% | 29% | 31% | 71% | 7% | 21% | 79% | 6% | 15% | 70% | 9% | 21% |
| James Talarico | 33% | 15% | 53% | 59% | 6% | 36% | 66% | 6% | 28% | 59% | 5% | 36% |
| Results reported among registered voters. | ||||||||||||
Other Texas Statewide Races
The primary contests for the two top offices in state government show little of the competitive spirit animating the U.S. Senate primaries.
Governor. In the Republican primary, three-term incumbent Governor Greg Abbott is the choice of 91% of likely Republican primary voters in a field of largely obscure candidates. Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, elected to the post the same year as the Governor, enjoys a similar level of support, 87%, amidst another field of equally unknown candidates.
On the Democratic side, State Representative Gina Hinojosa is the choice of 76% of likely Democratic primary voters, followed at a long distance by Bobby Cole (9%), former one-term Congressman Chris Bell (4%), Angela “Tía Angie” Villescaz (3%), and two other candidates attracting 1% or less. Bell ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2006, losing to Rick Perry in a rare four-way race. Hinojosa is widely viewed as the presumptive nominee.
Lt. Governor. In the Democratic race for the nomination to face presumed incumbent Dan Patrick, State Representative Vikki Goodwin garnered nearly two-thirds of the likely Democratic primary vote, with 63%, followed by Marcos Velez (15%) and Courtney Head (10%), with 12% preferring “someone else.” , the lack of attention to the Democratic race was reflected in a low number of responses to the question, which yielded a margin of error of +/- 7.29%.
As state house members who are undertaking their first statewide campaigns for office, Hinojosa and Goodwin remain largely unknown to most Texas voters. Hinojosa is viewed favorably by 24% of voters overall and unfavorably by 13%, while 20% report viewing her neutrally (“neither favorable nor unfavorable”) and 43% say they have no opinion of her. Among Democrats, 40% view her favorably while 9% view her unfavorably, with the remainder either having a neutral view (19%) or no opinion (32%). (Note that these ratings also are drawn for the overall sample rather than a likely voter estimate.)
Goodwin is viewed favorably by 17% of voters overall and unfavorably by 9%, leaving approximately three-quarters of the electorate without a view of the Austin area representative. Among Democrats, 24% hold a favorable view of Goodwin.
Attorney General. The race for the attorney general’s office being vacated by Ken Paxton, who has occupied the position since his election in 2014, is much more competitive in the Republican primary – and also appears likely to trigger a run-off election. Congressman Chip Roy narrowly led the robust field of candidates as the choice of 40% of likely primary voters, but was closely followed by State Senator Mayes Middleton, who garnered 38%. State Senator Joan Huffman followed at a distance (9%), as did former Assistant U.S. Attorney General Aaron Reitz (5%), with 8% preferring none of the named candidates. The margin of error for this result was +/- 5.73%, effectively rendering frontrunners Roy and Middleton in a statistical toss-up.
On the Democratic side, Joe Jaworski, who unsuccessfully sought the same nomination in 2022, was the choice of 52% of likely Democratic primary voters, followed by State Senator Nathan Johnson (28%) and attorney Tony Box (10%), while 11% preferred “someone else.” As in the Democratic Lt. Governor nomination race, the lack of attention to the Democratic race was reflected in a low number of responses to the question, which yielded a margin of error of +/- 7.24%.
The primary election environment
Attention to the U.S. Senate race. Most Texans have not heard a lot about the primary races underway. Asked how much they had “heard in the news” about the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas, 27% reported hearing “a lot,” while 41% reported having heard “some” about it; a quarter reported hearing “not very much” and 9% nothing at all. In Texas Politics Project polling in October and December of last year, the share reporting hearing “a lot” about the same subject were 21% and 30%, respectively.
(For comparison, Texas voters reported hearing a lot more about national events, chief among them “protests in Minnesota” – two-thirds (67%) reported having heard “a lot” and 22% “some” about the protests there in response to increased immigration enforcement in the state that resulted in the deaths of two protesters after being shot by federal immigration enforcement agents.)
Most important problems. Texas voters overall continued to view the issues related to the economy as the most important problems facing the state. A combined 23% cited either “inflation/higher prices” (13%) or “the economy” (10%) as the most pressing problems facing Texas, followed by 15% who cited either “immigration” (10%) or “border security” (5%). Fourteen percent chose “political corruption/leadership,” while 4% chose “health care.”
There were familiar partisan differences in the responses, though a recent trend in bipartisan concern about the economy continued in the latest survey.
The prevalence of border security and immigration in Republican perceptions of which issues are most important continue to give way to economic concerns. While a quarter (25%) of Texas Republicans viewed either immigration (17%) or border security (8%) as most important, the top ranking issue area, this was the lowest share citing these issues in over a decade of Texas Politics Project polling, while slightly more than a fifth (21%) lent the most importance to “inflation/higher prices” (12%) or “the economy” (9%).
Democrats, shut out of statewide elected offices for three decades, most frequently prioritized “political corruption/leadership” as the most important problem, followed by the 21% who chose either “inflation/higher prices” (12%) or “the economy” (9%), with 5% choosing “health care” and a combined 2% landing on either “immigration” or “border security.”
While independent voters tend to recede into the background of primary elections, attention to their perceptions of problems facing the state will likely be front and center in a general election environment expected to be more competitive than usual. Independents’ attention on the economy emerges as more focused than partisans, with economic issues ranking at the top of their concerns by a wide margin. More than a third of Texas voters with no party allegiance or inclination to lean toward one or the other major party, 35%, cite either “inflation/higher prices” (22%) or “the economy” (13%) as the most important problem facing the state, while 16% cite “political corruption/leadership,” equal to the 16% who cite immigration (13%) or “border security” (3%).
Views of the economy. As the “most important problem” responses indicate, Texas voters continue to express reservations about the state of the economy, though overall views were less negative than in December polling. Compared to a year ago, more Texas voters think the Texas economy is worse off (37%) than think it is better off (34%), but this is the smallest net-negative reading (-3%) registered during the period starting in August 2021, and a marked improved from December 2025 (29% better; 42% worse).
Forward-looking expectations about the state of the national economy one year from now also improved notably compared to the second half of 2025, with those expectations moving into net-positive territory for the first time since the immediate post-inaugural optimism of February 2025. The most recent poll found 40% expecting the economy to be better off a year from now, with 33% expecting it to be worse, and 19% expecting conditions to be “about the same.” In December, 37% expected the economy to be better one year from now, while a slightly larger 39% expected them to be worse. By comparison, 49% expected improvement in the February 2025 poll, 31% expected the economy to worsen.
The poll also found improvement in assessments of the national economy and in the personal economic situations of Texas voters, but these improvements were somewhat more muted. When asked if their personal economic conditions were better or worse than one year ago, the results remained in net negative territory: the share who reported being worse off (36%) remained larger than the share reporting being better off (29%), with about a third (34%) reporting their situation “about the same.” These responses, however, fit the general pattern of improving economic readings: the positive reports were five percentage points higher than December (24%) while the negative share was three percentage points lower (29%).
The economic indicator widely considered as an important barometer for the prospects of the party that holds the White House, saw the least improvement. The share judging the national economy better off than a year ago increased within the poll’s margin of error, from 34% in December to 36% in February, while the share who found the national economy worse off decreased three percentage points, from 49% to 46%.
Right direction/wrong track. The poll found slight improvements in Texas voters’ assessments of the overall direction of the country and of the state, but both readings remained in net-negative territory. A clear majority of Texans view the country as being on the wrong track (53%), with only 38% saying that the U.S. is headed in the right direction – the fifth consecutive survey finding a majority with a negative view.
For detailed graphics and data on trends in Texas voters’ economic assessments, see the recently updated and reorganized Texas Politics Project Time Series: Texans' Views of the Economy.
Views of the trajectory of the state were slightly less dire, but also remained in net-negative territory for the fifth consecutive Texas Politics Project survey: 42% said the state is headed in the right direction, while 45% say it’s on the wrong track.
Evaluations of State Leaders and the Legislature
With all 150 seats of the Texas House of Representatives and about half of the Texas Senate’s seats up for election, Texas voters’ approval of what state leaders and legislators accomplished over the last year of governing remains lukewarm.
Approval of how state leaders and the Legislature have handled each of the following...
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| Overall | Republicans | Independents | Democrats | |||||||||
| Approve | Disapprove | Neither | Approve | Disapprove | Neither | Approve | Disapprove | Neither | Approve | Disapprove | Neither | |
| Border Security | 49% | 36% | 15% | 83% | 6% | 11% | 33% | 46% | 21% | 17% | 68% | 14% |
| Immigration | 45% | 40% | 15% | 79% | 8% | 13% | 28% | 56% | 17% | 13% | 73% | 13% |
| The Texas Economy | 42% | 37% | 22% | 72% | 9% | 19% | 16% | 49% | 35% | 17% | 66% | 18% |
| Crime and Public Safety | 41% | 35% | 23% | 71% | 12% | 18% | 17% | 45% | 39% | 16% | 61% | 23% |
| Abortion Policy | 34% | 44% | 22% | 58% | 17% | 26% | 17% | 57% | 26% | 13% | 73% | 14% |
| Property Taxes | 31% | 44% | 26% | 47% | 29% | 24% | 18% | 58% | 24% | 18% | 59% | 23% |
| Higher Education | 30% | 38% | 33% | 46% | 15% | 39% | 11% | 46% | 43% | 16% | 64% | 20% |
| K-12 Public Education | 29% | 41% | 31% | 45% | 19% | 37% | 12% | 50% | 39% | 16% | 65% | 19% |
| Marijuana / THC Laws | 29% | 40% | 31% | 42% | 24% | 33% | 14% | 42% | 43% | 16% | 60% | 24% |
| Healthcare | 28% | 45% | 27% | 45% | 22% | 32% | 6% | 55% | 39% | 15% | 72% | 14% |
| Political Corruption/ Leadership | 28% | 47% | 25% | 46% | 21% | 33% | 15% | 63% | 21% | 12% | 76% | 13% |
| Housing | 28% | 41% | 31% | 45% | 18% | 38% | 11% | 59% | 32% | 15% | 64% | 20% |
Selected Key issues
Tariffs. More Texas voters think that increasing U.S. tariffs will hurt than help the economic situation of their families, by a wide margin. Half of the Texas voters say that tariffs will hurt the economic position of their families, while 20% expect them to help; 15% expect increased tariffs to have no impact on their household, while 15% have no opinion.
As has been the case throughout President Donald Trump’s pursuit of more aggressive tariff policies than any other president in nearly a century, Democrats and independents remain more skeptical of the impact of tariffs on their economic situation compared to Republicans, who themselves are divided. Only 9% of Democrats and 7% of independents think tariffs will help their families’ economic situation, white 78% and 63% of those two groups, respectively, expect tariffs to hurt them. A plurality of Texas Republicans, 34%, think tariffs will help their economic situation, while 24% think the opposite, with the remaining 25% expecting no impact or expressing no opinion (17%).
A somewhat larger share of Texas voters, 34%, think raising tariffs will help the U.S. economy “in the long run,” but a plurality, 47%, think those same tariffs will hurt the economy in the long run, with 6% expecting no impact and 13% expressing no opinion. Democrats overwhelmingly expect increased tariffs to hurt the economy (80%) in the long run, while a comparatively smaller majority of independents, 63%, also expect long term harm as a result of the policy. Whatever their expectations of personal harm, a large majority of Texas Republicans, 63%, expect tariffs to help the economy in the long run, with only 16% expecting long term damage.
Immigration and enforcement attitudes. In the wake of a month of intense political conflict over the Trump administration's signature immigration enforcement policies, and after more than a decade of Texas Republicans invoking a desire for stricter border security and immigration measures as an effective issue to unify their partisan base in state elections, those issues continue to generate sharp partisan differences in public opinion in the state.
Those differences emerged in sharp relief in responses to a question asking “has the Trump administration gone too far in enforcing federal immigration laws, has it been about right, or has it not gone far enough?” Among all Texas voters, nearly one-half (49%) responded “too far,” while a total of 45% held the opinion that administration efforts have “been about right” (26%) or have “not gone far enough” (19%), with 6% expressing no opinion.
There is a near consensus among Democrats (84%) that the administration has “gone too far,” with only 8% saying the effort has “been about right” and 4% saying they have not gone far enough. Among Texas Republicans, 17% say the administration has gone too far, while a plurality, 45%, say enforcement has “been about right,” and a little more than a third, 34%, say it has “not gone far enough.” Independents are not quite as critical as Democrats, but a clear majority, 63%, also think the administration has “gone too far,” while 12% think the approach has “been about right.”
Comparing partisan responses to the same question included in the December 2025 Texas Politics Project Poll suggests that the killing of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis on January 29 may have increased opposition to the administration's enforcement tactics among independents significantly, while raising doubts among Republicans slightly. Between the December and February polls, the share of independents who viewed efforts as having “gone too far” increased 14 points (from 49% to 63%), while the share among Republicans nearly doubled, albeit from a low baseline (from 9% to 17%). The share of Texas Republicans who thought enforcement had “not gone far enough” decreased 11 points (from 45% to 34%) while the share who thought enforcement had “been about right” increased slightly from 42% to a statistically indistinguishable 45%.
Foreign Engagements. Even as Donald Trump actively engages in foreign affairs with increasingly threatening posturing against Iran, seeking some kind of American control of Greenland, and the intervention and takeover of Venezuela, Trump’s partisan base in Texas remains broadly skeptical of U.S. action abroad. Overall, a majority of Texas Republicans, 54%, agreed with the statement “This country would be better off if we just stayed home and did not concern ourselves with problems in other parts of the world,” while 45% of Texas Republicans disagreed. Democrats were significantly more likely to disagree (60%) than agree (33%), while independents were slightly more likely to disagree (48% to 43%).
Asked whether they approved or disapproved of Donald Trump’s handling of four recent foreign policy issues, the president finds himself in net-negative approval territory on each of the four: 37% disapprove of his handling of protests in Iran (34% approve); 43% disapprove of his handling of Venezuela (40% approve); 44% disapprove of his handling of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine (36% approve); and 50% disapprove of his handling of Greenland (30% approve).
While 66% to 80% of Democrats disapprove of President Trump’s handling of these four foreign policy issue areas, a majority of Republicans approve in all four cases, though with a significant degree of variation. Among Republicans, 71% approve of the president’s handling of Venezuela (11%) disapprove; 62% his handling of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine (13% disapprove); 58% his handling of protests in Iran (10% disapprove); and 54% his handling of Greenland (21% disapprove).
Leadership job approvals
Overall: 45% approve; 49% disapprove
Republicans: 81% approve; 12% disapprove
Democrats: 11% approve; 88% disapprove
Independents: 19% approve; 66% disapprove
For a deeper dive into ratings of Donald Trump among Texans, take a look at this post produced to accompany his 2026 State of the Union Speech.
Job approval of Texas elected officials. Most Texas elected officials saw a continued respite from the general downward trajectory of approval ratings that characterized evaluations throughout 2025. Following a similar easing of downward pressures in December, the February poll still found most of the approval and disapproval total ratings falling within traditional ranges found in recent polling.
Gov Greg Abbott: 46% approve; 44% disapprove
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick: 34% approve; 40% disapprove
Attorney General Ken Paxton: 34% approve; 43% disapprove
U.S. Senator John Cornyn: 30% approve; 43% disapprove
U.S. Senator Ted Cruz: 39% approve; 48% disapprove
National job approval
U.S. Congress
Overall: 28% approve; 51% disapprove
Republicans: 45% approve; 32% disapprove
Democrats: 16% approve; 70% disapprove
Independents: 7% approve; 68% disapprove
Individual member of Congress
Overall: 39% approve; 27% disapprove
Republicans: 52% approve; 13% disapprove
Democrats: 34% approve; 42% disapprove
Independents: 10% approve; 33% disapprove
U.S. Supreme Court
Overall: 38% approve; 41% disapprove
Republicans: 63% approve; 14% disapprove
Democrats: 19% approve; 69% disapprove
Independents: 14% approve; 55% disapprove
Favorability ratings of additional candidates
The poll collected favorability ratings of members of both parties running for major offices.
Favorability Ratings: Selected Texas Primary Candidates
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| Overall | Republicans | Strong Republicans | Conservatives | |||||||||
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | |
| Greg Abbott | 46% | 42% | 11% | 81% | 9% | 9% | 89% | 7% | 5% | 79% | 11% | 10% |
| Dan Patrick | 33% | 36% | 31% | 56% | 12% | 33% | 64% | 9% | 27% | 57% | 13% | 30% |
| Chip Roy | 21% | 26% | 52% | 33% | 14% | 52% | 41% | 13% | 46% | 36% | 15% | 49% |
| Mayes Middleton | 17% | 15% | 69% | 27% | 5% | 68% | 35% | 4% | 61% | 28% | 5% | 66% |
| Joan Huffman | 15% | 10% | 64% | 20% | 2% | 77% | 28% | 2% | 61% | 23% | 3% | 74% |
| Aaron Reitz | 13% | 10% | 78% | 18% | 3% | 79% | 23% | 4% | 71% | 20% | 3% | 77% |
| Kelly Hancock | 18% | 11% | 60% | 25% | 3% | 71% | 33% | 3% | 65% | 28% | 4% | 68% |
| Christi Craddick | 18% | 12% | 70% | 26% | 4% | 70% | 32% | 4% | 64% | 29% | 4% | 68% |
| Don Huffines | 21% | 16% | 63% | 33% | 6% | 61% | 39% | 5% | 55% | 35% | 6% | 58% |
| Dawn Buckingham | 15% | 8% | 78% | 19% | 2% | 78% | 26% | 1% | 73% | 33% | 2% | 75% |
| Sid Miller | 19% | 13% | 67% | 28% | 5% | 67% | 33% | 4% | 63% | 31% | 4% | 65% |
| Results reported among registered voters. | ||||||||||||