A round-up of results in the April 2022 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll related to the 2022 Texas election

The majority of the April University of Texas / Texas Politics Project poll focused on the many issues currently facing the state and the country, many of which we expect to continue being a large part of the public discussion in the lead-up to the November elections. Taking into account that the general election remians several months in the future, the items in the poll related to the election were designed to assess attitudes toward candidates in the the most prominent upcoming Texas run-offs, and eventually, in the general election. We've compiled some results to these items below with a particular emphasis on the overall views and those among key groups of voters, whether in the upcoming general (e.g. independents, Hispanics, suburban voters), or in the upcoming primary run-offs (e.g. committed partisans, ideologues, and others).

The items in the April poll are primarily comprised of questions that ask respondents whether they hold a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate, and the strength of that opinion. We prefer this approach over trial ballots at this point in the election calendar for a few reasons: (1) it is difficult if not impossible (and beyond the scope of this poll) to draw good samples from the extremely small electorate that will vote in run-off elections to take place later this month, and (2) these items provide a clean approach to comparing voter attitudes (and attitudes among different groups of voters) towards the incumbents and their challengers, without forcing what would be in most instances, a premature choice (either because the candidates haven't been finalized and/or because the actual election is still seven months away). In the case of the primaries, we use data that resulted from this approach to compare attitudes (and the scope and extent of non-attitudes) among key groups, – liberal, Black, and Hispanic voters in the case of the Democratic run-offs for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General, and conservatives and strong Republicans in the case of the GOP run-off for Attorney General.

The one exception we make to this is the race for governor, in which both candidates have been selected by their party and were already well-known to the overall electorate. The sample for this head-to-head match-up between Beto O'Rourke (as with all the other items) was the entire sample of registered voters, given the uncertainly around estimating what a population of  "likely voters" should look like this far from Election Day.

To jump to survey results related to a specifica race, please use the navigation below. To see all the results from the most recently released University of Texas / Texas Politics Project poll, check out our latest poll page. Toplines, crosstabs, the methodology statement and a data file of this, and all UT/TXP polls can be found in the data archive.

The race for Governor
The race for Lieutenant Governor
The race for Attorney General
Congressional Trial Ballot
Texas Legislative Trial Ballot

The race for Governor

Governor Greg Abbott enters May right-side up on his job approval numbers for the second time this year, but hasn't been above 50% since April of 2020 in the early days of the pandemic. Abbott remains underwater with independents who, if the election turns tight, will become a key group in determining the next governor.

In the trial ballot item assessing preferences between Greg Abbott and Beto O'Rourke in the fall's marquee match-up, the poll finds Abbott maintaining his lead over O'Rourke, 48% to 37%. This result is driven by partisans and the partisan distribution in the state, but with the campaign barely underway, observers should watch the opinions of some key groups in the electorate -- Hispanics, suburban voters, and independents -- over the coming months to see whether this race will become more competitive, and if so, how much more competitive.

And here's a look at the favorability ratings for both Abbott and O'Rourke among key groups.

To jump back to the table of contents, click here.

The race for Lieutenant Governor

About as many Texas approve as disapprove of the job Dan Patrick is doing as Lieutenant Govenor, with increasingly sharp differences between partisans.

Asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Dan Patrick, 35% registered a favorable opinion, 35% an unfavorable one.

On the Democratic side, Mike Collier and Michelle Beckley suffer from the same challenges plaguing all Democratic challengers not named "Beto":  low name recognition in one of the largest states in the country. Despite most voters having no opinion of either, attitudes toward both are rather comparable among groups key to the Democratic coalition, with Collier slightly better positioned, likely due to this being his third statewide run in as many cycles.

To jump back to the table of contents, click here.

The race for Attorney General

In the run-off between current Attorney General Ken Paxton and Land Commissioner George P. Bush, the incumbent looks to enjoy advantages among key groups in the electorate, particularly the more committed Republicans and more ideologically conservative voters likely to make up the bulk of the run-off electorate.

Also troubling, for both Bush's chances, and the Democrats looking to unseat Paxton, is that voters haven't expressed a ton of knowledge or interest in the legal problems still hovering over the Attorney General. For Bush, the problem extends to the fact that Republicans are paying even less attention than Democrats

On the Democrats side, Rochelle Garza and Joe Jaworski suffer from the same challenges plaguing other Democratic challengers, low name recognition in one of the largest state's in the country. Despite most voters having no opinion of either, attitudes toward both are rather comparable among groups key to the Democratic coalition.

To jump back to the table of contents, click here.

Congressional Trial Ballot

The U.S. Congressional trial ballot found the generic Republican candidate leading the generic Democratic candidate 48% to 39% among registered voters, with 13% undecided.

Congressional approval remains low, with only 20% of Texans approving of the job Congress is doing while 56% disapprove, 37% strongly. Only 40% of Democrats approve of the Democratically controlled congress, while 76% of Republicans disapprove (54% strongly). More troubling for Democrats in Texas, 65% of independents disapprove of the job congress is doing, with a majority, 50%, disapproving strongly.

To jump back to the table of contents, click here.

Texas Legislative Trial Ballot

The Texas legislative trial ballot found the generic Republican candidate leading the generic Democratic candidate 47% to 39% among registered voters, with 13% undecided.

To jump back to the table of contents, click here.