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Respondents were asked, "For each of the following presidential candidates, please tell us whether you think that they would be a great, good, average, poor or terrible president."
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Respondents who indicated that they would vote in or have already voted in the Republican primary were asked, "What's most important: picking the candidate best prepared to..." "Likely Voters" were defined as those who indicated that they were either "Extremely" or "Somewhat" interested in politics in Q2 AND either voted in "Every" or "Almost every" election in Q3.
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Respondents who indicated that they would be voting for a candidate in the primary elections were asked, "You said that you would vote for [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q15A, Q15C, Q16A, Q16AC], how certain are you about this choice?"
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February 19, 2016 | By:
Jim Henson,
Joshua Blank
With Donald Trump seemingly headed toward big wins in both the South Carolina and Nevada primaries and Texas’ proportional representation primary less than two weeks away, the magnitude of Ted Cruz’s strength in Texas, and its geographic distribution, loom as major factors on Super Tuesday. Technically, Super Tuesday actually got underway in Texas on Monday, when early voting for the primary election started. Guns were back in the news this week as another private university took advantage of the campus-carry opt-out privilege accorded private institutions even as the University of Texas at Austin begrudgingly announced its policy, which reflected the legislature’s concerted effort to force public universities to allow guns in classrooms. The legislature continued its vision of protecting Constitutional guarantees Wednesday when the Senate State Affairs Committee held a hearing on their interim charge to protect sincerely held religious beliefs from the depredations of government. At several points in that hearing, the testimony flared into the kind of vituperative opposition to gay and lesbian rights that would have pleased Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, who died over the weekend near Marfa. The stakes of choosing Scalia’s successor on the high court couldn’t be higher, including among Republicans whose faith in the court was shaken by the court’s decisions affirming gay marriage and the Constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act – decisions from which Justice Scalia dissented with characteristic color.
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November 17, 2015 | By:
James Henson, PhD,
Joshua Blank, PhD
The prominent role of a Syrian who was likely never really a refugee, but masqueraded as one to reach Paris in order to play his terrible role there, has created the rhetorical space for a new variation on the immigration and border security trope that appeals to a broad section of Republican voters. The Paris attacks will clearly make national security and counter-terrorism more salient for now – and there was a significant portion of the GOP that saw terrorism as salient before the attack. But the quick incorporation of immigration as a central component of the national GOP response to Paris makes it unlikely that counter-terrorism will gain enough intensity to dislodge immigration in the gut reactions of GOP primary voters. The speed with which this incorporation has occurred suggests that, in fact, it may reinforce these reactions – and their impact on the GOP presidential race.
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November 13, 2015 | By:
James Henson, PhD,
Joshua Blank, PhD
While a more comprehensive analysis of the 2016 nominating race awaits the public release of the data and crosstabs from the November 2015 University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll next week, the weekend pause in the Texas Tribune release schedule invites a few initial observations on the first wave of results.
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Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "Are there any of these candidates for the Republican nomination for president whom you would definitely not support?"
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Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today,which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven't you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized.
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Respondents who indicated that they will be voting in the Republican Primary election were asked, "Of the remaining possible candidates, who would be your second choice, or have you not thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Response options were randomized.
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October 30, 2015 | By:
James Henson, PhD,
Joshua Blank, PhD
Halloween is upon us, but it's already been a scary week for Jeb Bush and homeowners thinking about their property tax bills – but Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are trying their best to calm everyone down. Calm by nature, Dr. Ben Carson started the week off early causing a stir with his proclamation that he's against abortion in cases of rape and incest, while two of Texas politics' more animated politicians – Dan Patrick and Ted Cruz – essentially endorsed each other. Both Patrick and Governor Abbott also endorsed the legislature preventing so-called sanctuary cities in Texas, but not enough to require legislators to haunt Austin in a special session. Finally, President Obama followed the lead of Texas in pressing for a reduction in standardized testing – a treat for kids and their parents, who increasingly told pollsters they find frequent high stakes testing pretty ghastly.
