Summary document (pdf)
Crosstabs (pdf)

We released the remaining results of the June 2020 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll today. This post focuses on Texans' assessment of the state's political leaders, the state of the economy in Texas, and the direction the state is headed.

The poll also included results on attitudes on the coronavirus and the ongoing response; race, policing, and recent protests; and the national economy and political landscape. There are links to a summary of all results and a crosstab file at the top of this page. As always, these files are available in the Texas Politics Project polling data archive, along with a data file and codebook. All the graphics in this post as well as hundreds of others from the June poll are available at the archive and at our "latest poll" page.

Some points of interest

• Governor Greg Abbott’s job approval rating dropped just below 50% approval – though at 49%, just below – for the first time in two years, an 7-point decline since the April UT/Texas Tribune Poll, while disapproval of his job performance increased from 32% in both February and April polling to 39% in June.
• Approval of Abbott’s handling of the coronavirus/COVID-19 was approximate to his overall job approval rating: 49% approved and 41% disapproved. This was a significant decline from his April ratings in which 56% approved and 29% disapproved.
• The job approval ratings of Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, Speaker of the House Dennis Bonnen, and both U.S. Senators all stayed mostly unchanged between April and June.
• COVID-19 again topped Texans’ list of the most important problems facing Texas, though immigration and border security remain the most salient problems for the largest share of Texas Republicans.
• Asked about the direction of Texas, 41% said the state was heading in the right direction, but 47% said the state was on the wrong track – the first net-negative assessment of Texas' direction since 2012. 
• A plurality of Texans reported that they would opt to vote in-person but during early voting, though nearly a third (32%) said they would opt to vote by mail if the rules allowed it.

Follow the links below for more detailed results in each subject area.

Within subject areas, individual item results are hyperlinked to graphics including cross tabulations by party identification, ideology, race, gender, religiosity, and other selected demographic and attitudinal characteristics.

Job approvals of Texas elected officials

Economic views and the political landscape

The 2020 elections and voting

Job approvals of Texas elected officials

Governor Greg Abbott’s job approval rating dropped just below 50% approval – though at 49%, just below –  for the first time in two years, an 7-point decline since the April UT/Texas Tribune Poll, while disapproval of his job performance increased from 32% in both February and April polling to 39% in June.

Abbott’s 56% overall job approval in April represented the highwater mark of his governorship, seemingly buoyed by relatively high approval from Democrats, 24% of whom approved of the job he was doing in the early stages of the state’s attempts to grapple with COVID-19. In the meantime, Abbott reopened Texas, but has since been forced to batten down the hatches when the opening contributed to a resurgence of the virus. His approval numbers among Democrats sagged to 13%, with 74% disapproving – 51% disapproving strongly – the highest disapproval rate among Democrats of his governorship.

Abbott’s approval rating among Republicans decreased from 88% to 83% over the same period, remaining within a long established band, and a sign that carping from far-right opinion leaders, grass tops groups, and a small handful of state legislators does not seem to be rampant among his base.

Approval of Abbott’s handling of the coronavirus/COVID-19 was approximate to his overall job approval rating: 49% approved and 41% disapproved. However, this represented a significant decline from his April ratings in which 56% expressed approval compared to only 29% who disapproved.

Abbott received slightly stronger marks for his handling of the economy.

Texans were more reserved about the governor’s handling of race relations: 45% approved and 27% disapproved; almost a quarter (23%) withheld judgment.

Among African Americans, 16% approved and 50% disapproved (32% strongly) of Abbott’s handling or race relations; among White Texans, 53% approved and 28% disapproved. Among Latinos, 41% approved and 32% disapproved.

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s job approval numbers remained largely static between April and June: 39% approved of the job he’s doing and 38% disapproved, up a mere two points, though another entry in a series of gradual but steady increases in negative appraisals of him since June 2019, when 31% disapproved.

Outgoing Speaker of the House Dennis Bonnen remains largely unknown to Texans, as his job approval numbers remain unchanged at 23% approve, 26% disapprove, and 56% with no opinion or who don’t know him.

Senator Ted Cruz, who has kept a comparatively low profile during the COVID-19 pandemic as as well as the racial protests of recent months, has an approval rating of 46% (30% strongly approve), while 42% disapprove (33% strongly).

Cruz remains appreciated by Republicans: 81% approve - 16 points higher than the approval of the state’s senior senator who is up for reelection this year.

Senator John Cornyn awaits the outcome of the Democratic primary run-off between M.J. Hegar and State Senator Royce West. Senator Cornyn’s job approval has fluctuated only slightly in three UT-affiliated polls this year including the June Poll, in which 36% approve of the job he’s doing (15% strongly) and 40% disapprove, the latter of which is on the high end of the range his ratings generally occupy. As he seeks reelection to his fourth consecutive term in the U.S. Senate, about a quarter of Texans don’t hold an opinion about him.

Republicans remain approving but comparatively lukewarm when you compare his approval ratings to other major Texas Republicans such as Cruz and Abbott: 65% approve of the job he’s doing, 22% disapprove, and 20% don’t have an opinion.

Economic views and the political landscape

Asked to choose the most important problem facing Texas, the most frequent choice was the coronavirus/COVID-19, chosen by 27%. In an echo of previous pre-pandemic polls, border security (9%) and immigration (8%) were the next most frequent answers, followed by political corruption/leadership and the economy, each chosen by 7%.

As is frequently the case in responses to this item, there were clear differences between partisans in which problems were most salient to them. COVID-19 was far and away the most frequent response among Democrats, 35% of whom chose it as the most important problem, followed at some distance by political corruption and leadership and the arguably related “health care,” each of which were chosen by 11% of Democrats. COVID-19 was also the single most common problem cited by Republicans, at 19%; but in a hallmark of Texas polling, border security and immigration were the next most common responses (at 16% and 13% respectively) — meaning that this cluster of issues led the GOP field. No other problem earned double digit shares. COVID-19 was also the most oft-cited issue among independents (26%).

Asked about the direction of Texas, 41% said the state was heading in the right direction, but 47% said the state was on the wrong track. This is the most negative overall reading in the UT data set since May 2011, when only 36% said right direction and 46%, wrong track. In April, judgments were dead even (43/43).

Most Texans also continue to describe their economic situation as either about the same as a year ago (43%) or worse off than a year ago (20% somewhat and 11% a lot worse off). There has not been a significant worsening since April polling after a huge reversal in this report between February and April of 2020 when the state was shut down.

Asked whether Texas’ significant population growth has been good or bad for the state, 43% thought it was a good thing, 32% said it was bad, and 25% didn’t have an opinion.

Asked about the state’s increasing racial and ethnic diversity, a near majority (48%) of Texans said that this change was a cause for optimism, while 31% say that it is a cause for concern.

The 2020 election and voting

As we reported last week, Donald Trump led Joe Biden in a head-to-head trial ballot 48-44. More discussion of that result can be found here.

We include Joe Biden’s favorability ratings from the poll in this release. At this stage, Biden continues to appear to bear some of the scars of the divisive Democratic primary election. His overall favorability ratings are 38% favorable and 51% unfavorable.

Breaking down this result by party identification strongly suggests that Republicans have made up their minds about Biden, and most have unfavorable views of him — he’s at 11% favorable and 82% unfavorable (71% very unfavorable). Democrats are less intense in their embrace of the presumptive Democratic candidate at this stage: 75% view him favorably, only 35% very favorably, and 16% view him unfavorably.

With a handful of Texas Congressional seats being hotly contested in Texas, the generic Congressional trial ballot finds 47% of Texans saying that they would cast their vote for the Republican candidate in their district, and 44% favoring Democratic candidates. While such items generally overestimate Democratic turnout at this distance from the election compared to typical November election results, the 3-point margin amidst trivial amounts of potential cross-voting does reflect increased competitiveness in the state, particularly in the urban and suburban regions of the state where Republican incumbents have come under increased electoral pressure in the last two election cycles, and appear to be under similar pressures in 2020.

These pressures have brought new attention to independent voters, who made up 12% of the sample in this poll. This group of “true independents” – which doesn’t include partisan “leaners” – were characteristically less fixed in their preferences. A plurality were undecided (43%), while a third reported favoring Republican candidates (33%) and about a quarter (24%) favored Democrats.

The candidates in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary run-off election remain largely unknown to most Texans. Early voting in this election started just as the poll was concluding, in advance of the July 14 run-off election. Historical precedent suggests a very low voter turnout, a situation rendered even more uncertain by the surging pandemic.

Looking exclusively at the Democratic candidates, M.J. Hegar enjoys a modest advantage over Royce West in name recognition among the broad pool of potential voters: 38% of Democrats expressed a favorable view of her, 9% an unfavorable view, and 53% were either neutral or had no opinion. West appears less well-known than Hegar: 29% of Democrats viewed him favorably, 4% unfavorably, and 66% were either neutral or had no opinion.

Amidst ongoing state and local stay-at-home orders due to the pandemic and a series of fights in the courts over the laws and practices governing voting by mail, the poll asked Texans: “If all Texans were allowed to vote by mail in the November 2020 general election, would you be more likely to cast your ballot by mail, or to cast your ballot in person?” A plurality of Texans reported that they would opt to vote in person but early, though nearly a third (32%) said they would opt to vote by mail if they could, per the framing in the question.  

There were big differences between Democrats and Republicans, consistent with recent political conflict around the voting process (and, likely, the view of the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic). More than half of Democrats said they would vote by mail in this scenario, compared to only 13% of Republicans.

Asked directly about whether all Texans should be allowed to vote by mail in the 2020 general election, 52% supported such a change and 40% opposed it, with Democrats heavily in favor, Republicans largely opposed, and independents slightly in favor but, characteristically, with a large chunk undecided.  

About the poll

The poll surveyed a sample of 1200 self-declared registered voters in Texas June 19-29, 2020. The margin of error of the poll was +/-2.83%, (3.28% adjusted for weighting). Data was collected over the internet by YouGov. More detailed methodological information about how the poll was conducted is contained in the summary document released last Thursday, and will be appended to the summary document released Monday. The summary file, cross tabs, codebook & data files will be available Monday at the Texas Politics Project Polling Data archive page.