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The final University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll of 2025 found Texas voters' attention to high prices pivoting towards health care costs as the 2026 election moves to the center of state politics.

Concern about the cost of health care moved to the top of Texans’ economic concerns in the December 2025 poll, with 67% of voters reporting being "very concerned" about the cost of healthcare—the highest level of concern among all 13 economic issues tested. This concern is shaded by partisanship, but remains present across the political spectrum, including 83% of Democrats, 62% of independents, and 56% of Republicans who all expressed being “very concerned” about an issue that has roiled national political discussion amidst significant increases in health insurance costs and the uncertain fate of recently-expired health insurance subsidies originally created by the Affordable Care Act.

In the wake of the central role played by reductions in subsidies for coverage under the Affordable Care Act in the extended federal government shutdown in November and ongoing budget negotiation politics in Washington, D.C., approval of how state and national leaders have handled healthcare was notably low. 

A majority of Texas voters, 52%, said that they disapproved of Donald Trump’s handling of the issue, compared to 30% who approve. While concerns about healthcare were evident throughout the poll, views of how the president has handled this issue were more polarized along party lines than other healthcare-related results. Among Democrats, 6% approved of Donald Trump’s handling of healthcare, while 88% disapproved, part of a fairly uniform pattern of mass disapproval among Democrats in response to each of the presidential issue areas evaluated. Independents’ evaluations were also strongly negative on balance: 60% disapproved while 21% approved. Among Republicans, 55% approved while nearly one in five, 19%, disapproved, making healthcare the issue registering the lowest GOP approval level for the president among the issues evaluated in the poll.

State leaders fared similarly. Nearly half of voters, 49%, disapproved of how state leaders and the Texas Legislature have handled healthcare, with only 22% approving — making healthcare the issue area with both the lowest overall approval among the issue areas tested, and also the highest overall disapproval rating (tied with “political corruption/ethics”). 

Slightly more than a third of Texas’ Republican voters, 36%, approved of how state leaders and the legislature are handling healthcare, while 27% disapproved. Among Democratic voters, 9% approved of state leaders’ handling of the issue, with about three quarters, 76%, disapproving. Among independents, 12% approved and 45% disapproved.

The poll was conducted December 9-16, 2025 among 1200 self-declared registered voters residing in Texas. Data collection was conducted by YouGov over the internet. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/- 2.83% (3.42% adjusted for weighting) unless otherwise noted.

Concerns about health care costs cohere with a continuing trend of negative views about the economy and the general direction of both the country and the state. Texans remained largely pessimistic at the close of 2025, with 49% saying that the national economy is worse off than it was a year ago (including 31% who say it’s “a lot worse off”), and only 34% saying that the economy is doing better.

Views on the Texas economy remain slightly less sour than views of the national economy, but also remain in similarly negative territory: 42% of Texas voters say that the state economy is performing worse than a year ago, while only 29% say it is improving. When assessing their own personal financial situations, 35% report that their family is in about the same economic position as last year, about a quarter, 24%, say that they’re better off, while the plurality, 39%, report being worse off compared to last year.

Asked about their expectations for the national economy, Texans are split: 37% expect the national economy to improve over the next year, while 39% expect the economy to be worse one year from now, with the remaining 16% expecting no change.

All of these assessments continue to display significant partisan differences, with Republican voters providing more positive economic judgments than Democrats or independents.

As 2025 came to a close, the December poll found Texas voters’ attention shifting toward the 2026 election, albeit gradually and unevenly across the election landscape. Slightly less than half of Texas voters, 46%, reported having heard "a lot" about efforts to redraw congressional maps, while only 30% had heard "a lot" about the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas, with even fewer Texas voters, 21%, saying that they had heard the same about the upcoming March 2026 primary elections. Yet voters were not completely unaware of the elections moving inexorably to the center state of politics: much larger shares reported having heard at least “some” about each of the three election-related subjects.

The poll also provides an updated snapshot on the positions of the candidates contesting the high-stakes primary elections for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Senator John Cornyn, who is seeking the GOP nomination for reelection to a sixth term.

In the GOP primary, Senator Cornyn remains less favorably viewed among Republican voters when compared to Attorney General Ken Paxton, currently his most formidable opponent in a GOP contest that has been the focus of significant national attention. After his more than three decades in public office, only 38% of Republican voters expressed a favorable view of Cornyn, while more than a quarter, 27%, view him unfavorably; 24% are neutral and 11% expressed no opinion. Paxton fares significantly better among the same group: 50% of Texas Republicans view him favorably, while 22% view him unfavorably. 

Paxton enjoys slightly larger advantages among subgroups expected to make up a significant share of the Republican primary electorate – in particular, Republican loyalists and conservatives:

• Among those that identify as “strong” Republicans, 59% view Paxton favorable and 13% view him unfavorably, compared to 44% who view Cornyn favorably and 13% who view him unfavorably (a 15 point gap in favorable ratings).
• Among self-identified conservatives, 49% view Paxton favorably, 21% view him unfavorably, while only 35% view Cornyn favorably and 29% view him unfavorably.

	Favorability Ratings (December 2025 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
	Overall			Republicans			Strong Republicans			Conservatives
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Don't know	Favorable	Unfavorable	Don't know	Favorable	Unfavorable	Don't know	Favorable	Unfavorable	Don't know
John Cornyn	24	43	34	38	27	35	44	23	34	35	29	35
Ken Paxton	28	44	27	50	22	28	59	13	27	49	21	31
Wesley Hunt	16	19	64	28	11	61	29	9	62	27	10	63

The December results offer some evidence that the public phase of the primary election is underway as the candidates ramp up their efforts to directly influence likely primary voters. After nearly identical results among Republican voters in August and October, the share holding a favorable view of Paxton dropped from 55% in the prior two polls to 50% in December, while his disapproval increased among the same group from 16% in October to 22% in December. Cornyn’s approval also decreased, from 43% to 38%, while his disapproval increased from 24% to 27% after largely stagnant results throughout the summer and fall.

With both Paxton and Cornyn earning unfavorable views from large shares of Republicans, including the subgroups of party loyalists and ideologically-motivated Republicans likely to comprise a large share of the primary electorate, Congressman Wesley Hunt’s presence in the race continues to fuel expectations that the contest may result in a run-off election in May. Hunt’s favorability ratings among Republicans (28% favorable, 11% unfavorable) were statistically indistinguishable from October results among the same group (29% favorable, 9% unfavorable) – levels of potential support sufficient to trigger a run-off.

On the other side of the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett’s late entry, and the immediate withdrawal of 2024 Democratic Senate nominee Colin Allred, made for late headlines in a race already garnering a lot of media attention.

As October polling made clear, Crockett is a rising star in the Texas Democratic universe, and her subsequent entrance into the Democratic primary contest for the U.S. Senate reshaped that race. The December poll confirmed both Crockett’s status among Democratic voters and the challenges she would face in a general election. Among Democrats, 70% expressed a favorable view of Crockett in December compared to only 5% holding an unfavorable view. Favorable views among Democrats increased by 8 points between October and December, from 62% to 70%. Among Republicans in the December poll, 58% viewed her unfavorably, and 7% viewed her favorably. 

State Representative James Talarico, while so far demonstrating the ability to raise large sums of money, is likely going to need it in order to keep up with Crockett’s growing presence among the Democratic electorate. As of December, 46% of Democrats held a favorable view of Talarico, with only 6% holding an unfavorable view. While overwhelmingly favorable among those with an opinion, favorable views of Talarico still trail Crockett’s among the same group by 24 points; while his overall ratings remained largely unchanged compared with his October numbers (43% favorable, 5% unfavorable). Talarico is a much less known quantity among Republicans: 19% viewed him unfavorably, while 5% viewed him favorably, with the remainder either having no opinion (53%) or remaining neutral (23%).

Retired astronaut Terry Virts has yet to achieve orbit in this race, with only 20% of Democratic voters currently expressing a view of the former air force colonel, 13% favorable, 7% unfavorable.

Other findings of interest

Direction of Texas and the U.S. Texas voters’ assessments of the direction of the state and the country improved slightly compared to polling throughout the second half of 2025, but remained in net negative territory. A majority, 53%, still see the U.S. as on the wrong track, with slightly more than a third of Texans, 36%, saying that the country is headed in the right direction. 

Views of Texas are significantly more positive, but remain in net negative territory for the fourth successive UT/Texas Politics Project Poll: 47% said the state was on the wrong track, while 41% say that the state is headed in the right direction. This was a clear improvement from previous polling in October (54% wrong track, 36% right direction), but a significant departure from polling conducted in the first half of the year, when in February, 48% said the state was headed in the right direction compared to 37% who said the state was on the wrong track. 

Views of Venezuela. In response to a battery of questions assessing how Texas voters view each of 14 countries, 11% viewed Venezuela favorably while 49% viewed it unfavorably, with 30% neutral and 9% holding no opinion. Looked at through the prism of party, Texas Republicans expressed lopsidedly unfavorable views (70% unfavorable, 7% favorable), with unfavorable views among both Democrats and independents less lopsided but still unfavorable overall (16% favorable, 32% unfavorable among Democrats; and 6% favorable, 33% unfavorable among independents). The poll was conducted prior to the arrest of Venezuelan president Nicholás Maduro in Caracas by U.S. military and law enforcement personnel.

U.S. foreign policy. In a recurring question included in the December poll, 45% of Texans agreed with the statement, “This country would be better off if we just stayed home and did not concern ourselves with problems in other parts of the world,” while slightly more Texas voters, 48%, disagreed. Texas Democrats were more likely to favor international engagement than either Republicans or independents in the state: 33% of Democrats agreed with the provided statement while 62% disagreed. A majority of both Republicans (54%) and independents (50%) agreed with limited U.S. intervention in international affairs, while 41% and 31%, respectively, disagreed with the “stay at home” proposition.

Federal immigration enforcement. When asked, “In your opinion, has the Trump administration gone too far in enforcing federal immigration laws, has it been about right, or has it not gone far enough?” 45% said “too far,” 25% said “about right,” and 23% said the administration had “not gone far enough.”  The lion’s share of Democrats, 87%, said that the administration had gone too far, with only 8% saying it was about right and an even smaller share, 3%, saying the administration had not gone far enough. Texas Republicans were more inclined to think the administration had not gone far enough (45%) or has been about right (42%) in its enforcement efforts, with only 9% offering that enforcement had gone too far. By contrast, nearly half of independents (49%) said federal immigration policy had gone too far, while 16% said it was about right and 14% thought it had not gone far enough. 

President Trump’s handling of policy. Patterns in public opinion in response to immigration enforcement align with Texas voters’ views of President Trump’s handling of public policy. When asked to evaluate President Trump’s handling of a dozen prominent policy areas, the only three areas in which he received net-positive reviews were border security (50% approve / 38% disapprove), immigration (47% approve / 43% disapprove), and crime and public safety (47% approve / 41% disapprove). However, majorities, and in many cases, large majorities of GOP voters approved of the president’s handling of each of the 12 policy areas tested, with more than 80% approving of his handling of crime and public safety (81%), immigration (84%), and border security (89%). More than three quarters of Democrats disapproved of the president’s handling of each of the 12 policy areas, while among independents, the president only received net-positive evaluations in response to his handling of border security (44% approve, 37% disapprove), with pluralities or majorities disapproving of his handling of the other 11 issue areas.

2026 generic ballots. Asked about their vote intention in the upcoming 2026 elections for U.S. Congress in their district (without mention of any specific candidates), 41% of Texans said they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district, while 39% said they would vote for the Democratic candidate. Democrats were slightly more likely than Republicans to support their party’s candidates (90% to 85%), with slightly more than one in ten Republicans saying that they hadn’t thought about it enough to have an opinion (9%) or that they simply didn’t know (1%).The narrow Republican lead also likely reflects true independents’ lack of support for any candidates at this point in the election cycle: only 24% chose candidates from one of the major parties (10% Republican, 14% Democratic), while 43% said that they hadn’t thought about it enough (not surprising for independents who are, by definition, less engaged politically); 10% opted for an unspecified “someone else,” and 6% had no opinion. True independents who don’t lead toward either party made up 11% of the sample in the poll.

Looking back to the prior election cycle in 2024, December 2023 UT/TxPP polling found Republicans with an 8 point advantage among registered voters that year (46% to 38%), buttressed in no small part by greater enthusiasm among Republicans, with 91% in December of that year saying that they would be supporting their GOP congressional candidate, compared to 85% this year. A little less than one year out from the 2024 elections, 14% of independent voters said that they would be supporting the Democratic candidate, indistinguishable from this cycle so far; but the share saying they will be supporting the GOP candidate is 17 points lower compared to the same time in the last cycle (27% in December 2023, 10% in December 2025).

A similar generic ballot question asking Texans about their vote for the Texas Legislature in 2026 yielded similar results, with 40% saying that they will be supporting the Republican candidate and 39% saying that they will be supporting the Democrat, with 2% looking for “someone else” to support, and nearly one in five voters saying that they either “haven’t thought about it enough” (14%) or have no opinion (5%). 

2026 statewide candidates. In addition to evaluations of the U.S. Senate candidates, the December UT/TxPP poll continued to assess Texas voters’ views of the major candidates vying for their party’s nomination in many of the major statewide races.

With Governor Abbott looking to be on a glide path to another GOP Gubernatorial nomination, and Democratic nominee Andrew White dropping out of the race and immediately endorsing State Representative Gina Hinojosa, the poll found 45% of voters holding a favorable view of the current governor with a near equal share, 43%, holding an unfavorable view. Views of Hinojosa are, unsurprisingly, much less developed, with 15% holding a favorable view and 11% holding an unfavorable view.

The race for Lieutenant Governor provides similar early contours. Incumbent Dan Patrick, the overwhelmingly likely Republican nominee, is viewed favorably by 28% of Texas voters, but unfavorably by a notable plurality, 40%. His most likely rival, state representative Vikki Goodwin is viewed favorably and unfavorably by 9% of Texas voters, respectively.

In the crowded race to succeed Ken Paxton as the state’s Attorney General, current Congressman Chip Roy looks the best positioned among the Republican electorate as of December, with 34% holding a favorable view of Roy and 7% holding an unfavorable view. State Senator Mayes Middleton is viewed favorably by 14% of Republican voters, unfavorably by 6%; while State Senator Joan Huffman is viewed favorably by 12% of Republican voters and unfavorably by 5%, respectively. Aaron Reitz is viewed favorably by 10% of Republican voters, and unfavorably by 4%.

	Favorability Ratings (December 2025 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
	Overall			Republicans			Strong Republicans			Conservatives
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Don't know	Favorable	Unfavorable	Don't know	Favorable	Unfavorable	Don't know	Favorable	Unfavorable	Don't know
Chip Roy	18	20	62	34	7	60	37	6	58	33	7	59
Mayes Middleton	9	9	81	14	6	81	16	2	81	14	5	81
Joan Huffman	8	9	83	12	5	83	13	4	81	11	6	84
Aaron Reitz	7	8	85	10	4	85	13	3	84	9	5	86

On the Democratic side, the candidates remain largely unknown to the potential primary electorate. State Senator Nathan Johnson is viewed favorably by 15% of Democrats, and unfavorably by 5%, with the remainder unable to offer an opinion. Though a repeat candidate, Joe Jaworski is no more well-known, with 13% of Democrats offering a favorable view and 6% an unfavorable one.

In the race for Comptroller on the Republican side, former State Senator and gubernatorial candidate Don Huffines finds himself as the most (relatively) well known among the GOP electorate, with 23% holding a favorable view and 9% holding an unfavorable view. Current Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick finds herself viewed favorably by 18% of Republican voters and unfavorable by 5%; while current acting Comptroller and former State Senator Kelly Hancock is viewed favorably by 13% and unfavorably by 2%, respectively.

Likely Democratic candidate and current State Senator Sarah Eckhardt is viewed favorably by 10% of voters and unfavorably by 7% overall, with 17% of Democrats holding a favorable view and 6% holding an unfavorable view.

Current Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller is viewed favorably by 14% of voters and unfavorably by 12% (24% favorable, 5% unfavorable among Republicans); while Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham is viewed favorably by 9% of Texas voters, and unfavorably by 8% (14% favorable, 1% unfavorable among Republicans).

MAGA support. Asked about their opinion of the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement, 38% of Texas voters said they have a favorable view (23% very favorable) while 47% had an unfavorable view (41% very unfavorable). Texas Democrats were predictably uniform in their disapproval: only 6% had favorable views, while 86% were unfavorably disposed to the movement identified with President Donald Trump (80% very unfavorable). While a large majority of Republicans, 74%, viewed MAGA favorably (46% very favorable), 13% expressed neutral views, while 11% viewed the movement unfavorably. Independents overall were not attracted to MAGA: 16% had favorable views, while 56% had unfavorable views – 46% very unfavorable.

Asked whether the MAGA movement has too much, too little, or the right amount of influence on the Republican Party, only 14% of Republicans offered that it had too much influence, with a near-majority, 49%, saying it had about the right amount, and nearly a quarter, 23%, saying the movement has “too little” influence on the Republican Party. Independents were again skeptical, with a majority, 53%, saying MAGA had “too much” influence on the GOP.

Texas legislature handling of issues. Texas legislators and statewide officials seeking re-election in 2026 will find an electorate seemingly underwhelmed with their performance on key policy issues after another active year in state politics that included multiple special legislative sessions. When asked if they “approve or disapprove of how state leaders and the legislature have handled” each of 12 policy areas, state leadership only received net-approving evaluations in one policy area: border security, with 47% of Texans approving and 37% disapproving. Immigration was the next highest evaluated issue area, but here, Texas voters were split, with 42% each approving and disapproving.

On each of the other ten issue areas, more Texans disapproved than approved of state leadership. In response to 7 of the 12 issue areas, no more than 25% of Texans approved of the performance of state leaders and the legislature, while at least 40% disapproved, including in response to state leadership’s handling of property taxes (25% approve; 45% disapprove); higher education (24% approve; 40% disapprove); K-12 public education (23% approve; 46% disapprove); political corruption and ethics (23% approve; 49% disapprove); marijuana and THC laws (23% approve; 43% disapprove); housing (23% approve; 44% disapprove); and the aforementioned healthcare (22% approve; 49% disapprove).  

While Democrats overwhelmingly disapproved of state leadership’s handling of each of the 12 issue areas tested, those same leaders also find themselves heavily underwater with the state’s independent voters, with large and notable approval deficits on key issues like the Texas economy (17% approve; 46% disapprove); property taxes (15% approve; 46% disapprove); housing (14% approve; 45% disapprove); healthcare (12% approve; 45% disapprove); and political corruption and ethics (11% approve; 50% disapprove).  

Republican voters were more inclined to provide approving grades to the state’s leadership, though not without some soft spots. Taken together, at least one in five Republican voters disapproved of how state leaders and the legislature handled 8 out of the 12 issue areas, with a quarter or more disapproving in 5 out of the 12. 

Majorities of Republican voters approve of how state leadership has handled border security (82%), immigration (77%), the Texas economy (66%), crime and public safety (63%), and, more narrowly, abortion policy (54%). 

Yet those same voters were more measured in their praise of state leadership’s handling of other policy areas, including in areas given high priority by both voters and elected officials.  Perhaps most confounding for Republican incumbents: only 39% of Republican voters approved of the state leadership’s performance on property taxes – a high priority going into the last legislative session, and an emerging campaign talking point in primary campaigns – while about a third disapproved. Other areas marked by faint praise from GOP voters included healthcare (36% approve; 27% disapprove), K-12 public education (35% approve; 29% disapprove), and marijuana and THC laws (35% approve; 29% disapprove).

Job approval of Texas elected officials. Most Texas elected officials saw a slight respite from the general downward trajectory of approval ratings that characterized Texas voters’ evaluations throughout much of 2025, though evaluations of incumbents remained on balance negative. The slight abeyance of downward pressure can’t be attributed to any clear cause. It might be a result of the ambient holiday mood during the holiday season, the beginning of an upward trend, or simply expected variance in the poll estimates. Broadly speaking, most of the approval and disapproval total ratings fall within ranges evident throughout recent polls.

Gov Greg Abbott: 43% approve; 46% disapprove

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick:  31% approve; 42% disapprove
Attorney General Ken Paxton: 29% approve; 46% disapprove
U.S. Senator John Cornyn: 25% approve; 46% disapprove
U.S. Senator Ted Cruz: 35% approve; 48% disapprove

President Donald Trump
Overall: 44% approve; 50% disapprove
Republicans: 82% approve; 11% disapprove
Democrats: 5% approve; 93% disapprove
Independents: 24% approve; 63% disapprove

U.S. Congress
Overall: 23% approve; 57% disapprove
Republicans: 41% approve; 38% disapprove
Democrats: 7% approve; 80% disapprove
Independents: 13% approve; 53% disapprove

Individual member of Congress. 
Overall: 35% approve; 32% disapprove
Republicans: 52% approve; 16% disapprove
Democrats: 22% approve; 48% disapprove
Independents: 14% approve; 40% disapprove

U.S. Supreme Court 
Overall: 36% approve; 42% disapprove
Republicans: 64% approve; 16% disapprove
Democrats: 11% approve; 73% disapprove
Independents: 15% approve; 42% disapprove

Other items included in the poll, including ratings of political and social institutions, favorability ratings of institutions, views of the impact of tariffs, and more can be found using the easy-to-use Texas Politics Project search tool. Summary documents contain extensive sampling and methodology information.