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The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll provides yet more evidence of a historically close election in Texas, with Democratic candidates enjoying razor-thin polling leads over their more well-funded Republican opponents amidst a clear partisan enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats. The poll was conducted September 25 to October 5, 2026, with trial ballot results presented among a sample of 861 likely voters (LV), producing a margin of error of +/- 3.34 percentage points.

In the trial ballot for the election to replace John Cornyn in the U.S. Senate, Attorney General Ken Paxton trails State Representative James Talarico 47% to 50%, with 1% preferring Libertarian Party candidate Ted Brown, and 2% preferring a non-specified “someone else.” Paxton defeated Cornyn by a wide margin in the hotly contested GOP primary that was decided in a May runoff election. Talarico’s 3-percentage-point lead is within the poll’s margin of error, and is similar to the polling leads the Austin-area legislator has enjoyed in most of the non-partisan public polling conducted since Labor Day.

Paxton continues to lag behind Talarico in the candidates’ efforts to consolidate partisan voters behind their candidacies, though the Attorney General is faring better in this effort among likely voters than among the broader universe of registered voters in polling conducted earlier in the election cycle: 92% of Republican, likely voters said that they would be voting for Paxton in the October trial ballot, compared to 98% of Democrats choosing Talarico. Based on their recall of their 2024 presidential vote, 98% of Harris voters said they would be supporting Talarico, while 89% of Trump voters said that they would be voting for Paxton — despite the President’s recent, high-profile efforts on the Paxton's behalf.

Talarico’s favorability ratings remain stronger among Democratic partisans than are Paxton’s among his Republican base. Among likely Democratic voters, 92% view Talarico favorably, with only 1% viewing the state representative unfavorably. Paxton generates a significantly less favorable response among likely, Republicans voters, with 69% viewing him favorably and 15% holding an unfavorable view.

Differences in the breadth and intensity of partisan support for each candidate are stark. Among Democratic likely voters, 92% view Talarico favorably, including 72% with “very favorable” views, while only 1% view him unfavorably, with 4% neutral and 3% expressing no opinion. Republican likely voters expressed much less lopsided and less intense views of Paxton: 69% view him favorably (33% “very favorable”), while 15% view him unfavorably (7% “very unfavorably”), and 13% are neutral with the remaining 2% holding no opinion.

Independent likely voters prefer Talarico over Paxton by a large margin, 69% to 11%. (Following standard practice in UT/Texas Politics Project reporting of results, estimates of independent attitudes include only self-identified independents with no expressed lean toward either party, constituting 5% of the likely voter sample and 11% of the registered voter sample.)

Among other key groups likely to influence the outcome of the Senate election:

• Latinos: Talarico 54%, Paxton 41%
• Urban: Talarico 54%, Paxton 41%
• Suburbs: Talarico 54%, Paxton 44%
• Rural: Talarico 30%, Paxton 66%
• Women: Talarico 56%, Paxton 40%
• Men: Talarico 42%, Paxton 54%

The poll finds Governor Greg Abbott’s bid to win reelection to a record fourth term challenged by unprecedented competition from Austin-area Democratic state representative Gina Hinojosa. Trial ballot estimates for the two candidates finds a race that is effectively tied at this late stage in the campaign, with Hinojosa holding a statistically insignificant one-point lead over the incumbent, 49% to  48%, with 3% preferring an unspecified “someone else.” The Libertarian Pat Dixon received 1% of stated support among likely voters.

Hinojosa’s one-point edge in the trial ballot reflects her advantage in support from the candidates’ respective partisans. Among Democrats, 98% preferred Hinojosa while 2% preferred Abbott; among Republicans, 93% preferred Abbott while 4% preferred Hinojosa, with another 2% holding out for an unnamed “someone else.” Two-thirds of independents (67%) said they would be supporting Hinojosa, while 17% said that they would be supporting the incumbent (compared to 11% of the same group who supported Paxton).

Abbott is viewed slightly more favorably than Hinojosa by their respective partisans, though the difference in their net ratings is inconsequential. Among Republican likely voters, 89% view Abbott favorably, while 7% view him unfavorably (net +82); 84% of likely Democratic voters view Hinojosa favorably, with 3% viewing her unfavorably (net +81). Among independent likely voters, Abbott was viewed favorably by 17% and unfavorably by 73%, with a majority, 51%, viewing Hinojosa favorably, and 20% viewing her unfavorably.

Among other key groups being watched in the Senate election:

• Latinos: Abbott 42%, Hinojosa 56%
• Urban: Abbott 42%, Hinojosa 56%
• Suburbs: Abbott 53%, Hinojosa 44%
• Rural: Abbott 68%, Hinojosa 28%
• Women: Abbott 41%, Hinojosa 56%
• Men: Abbott 55%, Hinojosa 32%

Trial Ballots for Other Statewide Races

Estimates for the survey’s non-generic trial ballots are also reported based on the pool of likely voters (n=841, +/-3.34%), which was drawn from an overall sample of 1,200 registered voters. For a detailed description of how the likely voter subsample was derived, see page 34 of the poll’s summary document. Topline results for key statewide races find most Democratic candidates with narrow leads, all within the poll’s margin of error. Favorability ratings for all candidates other than four-term incumbent Lt. Governor Dan Patrick suggest that most Texans have little familiarity with nearly all of the down-ballot candidates, most of whom are running statewide for the first time.

Lt Governor: Dan Patrick (incumbent) (R) 46%, Vikki Goodwin (D) 49%, Anthony Christo (L) 2%, Kevin McCormick 1%, “someone else” 2%.

 

Dan Patrick favorability ratings

Overall: 33% favorable / 38% unfavorable / 15% neutral / 14% no opinion

Republicans: 65% favorable / 9% unfavorable / 18% neither / 9% no opinion

Independents: 11% favorable / 39% unfavorable / 25% neutral / 26% no opinion

Vikki Goodwin favorability ratings

Overall: 20% favorable / 13% unfavorable / 22% neutral / 39% no opinion

Democrats: 37% favorable / 4% unfavorable / 20% neutral / 39% no opinion

Attorney General: Mayes Middleton (R) 47%, Nathan Johnson (D) 48%, Tom Oxford (L) 1%, “someone else” 3%.

Mayes Middleton favorability ratings

Overall: 21% favorable / 16% unfavorable / 23% neutral / 40% no opinion

Republicans: 39% favorable / 6% unfavorable / 26% neutral / 29% no opinion

Independents: 5% favorable / 12% unfavorable / 38% neutral / 46% no opinion

Nathan Johnson favorability ratings

Overall: 15% favorable / 12% unfavorable / 25% neutral / 48% no opinion

Democrats: 27% favorable / 4% unfavorable / 20% neutral / 49% no opinion

Comptroller of Public Accounts: Don Huffines (R) 47%, Sarah Eckhardt (D) 46%, V. Alonzo Echavarria-Garza (L) 2%, Shehla Faizi (G) 1%, “someone else” 3%.

Don Huffines favorability ratings

Overall: 22% favorable / 18% unfavorable / 21% neutral / 39% no opinion

Republicans: 39% favorable / 4% unfavorable / 25% neutral / 40% no opinion.

Independents: 7% favorable / 24% unfavorable / 29% neutral / 40% no opinion

Sarah Eckhardt favorability ratings

Overall: 16% favorable / 12% unfavorable / 23% neutral / 50% no opinion

Democrats: 28% favorable / 4% unfavorable / 18% neutral / 51% no opinion

Independents: 9% favorable / 14% unfavorable / 30% neutral / 47% no opinion.

Texas Railroad Commission: Bo French (R) 46%, Jon Rosenthal (D) 47%, Arthur DiBianca (L) 3%, “someone else” 4%.

Bo French favorability ratings

All: 22% favorable / 18% unfavorable, 21% neutral, 40% no opinion

Republicans: 39% favorable / 4% unfavorable / 25% neutral / 31% no opinion.

Independents: 8% favorable / 25% unfavorable / 25% neutral / 43% no opinion.

Jon Rosenthal favorability ratings

Overall: 14% favorable / 12% unfavorable / 23% neutral / 52% no opinion

Democrats: 24% favorable / 5% unfavorable / 18% neutral / 52% no opinion.

Independents: 8% favorable / 13% unfavorable / 19% neutral / 48% no opinion.

Generic Trial Ballots

Despite leads within the margin of error for many of the specific Democratic candidates in statewide match-ups, the survey still finds the generic Republican candidate for Congress and the Texas Legislature ahead of the generic Democratic candidate among registered voters in Texas, 47% to 42% for the U.S. Congress, and 48% to 43% in the Texas Legislature.

While these gaps are notably small, more notable is the role that enthusiasm is playing in this election (more below), with likely voters only preferring the generic Republican congressional candidate by one point over the generic Democrat, 48% to 47%, and by a similar 1-point margin, 49% to 48% for generic candidates running for the Texas Legislature.

Views of the Political Parties

As Texas voters consider many first-time statewide candidates up and down the ballot, they remain largely underwhelmed by the major political parties.

After more than two decades of Republicans holding a monopoly on statewide elected offices and majority control of both houses of the state legislature, views of the Republican Party remain mixed. In the latest poll, 41% had a favorable view of the Republican Party while 48% had an unfavorable view, for a net favorability of -7.

Not surprisingly given the last three decades of election results, Texans’ favorability ratings of the Democratic Party are more underwater than ratings of the GOP: 34% expressed favorable views while 51% expressed unfavorable views, producing a net favorability of -17. Even as Democratic candidates performed competitively in the trial ballots made up of likely voters, the overall brand of their party continues to suffer. The gap in assessments of the party in the overall sample hints at the enthusiasm deficit among Texas Republicans that is powerfully influencing statewide polling.

Voting Enthusiasm and Certainty

Higher levels of Democratic enthusiasm about the election help to explain the distribution of support in the 2026 election with early voting beginning soon. Nearly three-quarters (72%) of Democrats report being either “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about “voting in the November 2026 election,” 10 percentage points higher than the 62% of Republicans who report the same. More than half of Democrats, 53%, are “extremely enthusiastic” about voting compared to only 37% of Republicans. 

When asked to “rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections” on a scale of 1-10, with 10 meaning “you are absolutely certain to vote,” 81% of Democrats responded with a rating of either 9 or 10, while 71% of Republicans fell into the same two response categories, another 10-point gap between the two parties (including three quarters of Democrats expressing their certainty as a 10, compared to only 58% of Republicans).

In the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races, supporters of Republicans were also less certain about their vote than supporters of Democrats, particularly in the Senate context. After responding to the trial ballot questions, respondents were asked, “How likely are you to change your mind before you vote?” Among Democrats, 83% reported being “not at all likely” to change their minds (with another 12% “not very likely”), and only 4% reporting being “very likely” to change their minds. Republicans were less sure: 69% were “not at all likely” to change their minds (with another 21% “not very likely”), while 8% were “very likely” (4%) or “somewhat likely” (4%). 

Wavering Republican enthusiasm in the campaign to date is also evident when looking at the preferences of voters’ based on their recollected 2024 presidential vote. Among Kamala Harris voters, 98% preferred Talarico and 1% chose Paxton on the trial ballot. Among Trump voters, 89% chose Paxton, with 6% opting for Talarico.

Trust on Issues: U.S. Senate

When asked to assess which U.S. Senate candidate they trusted more to handle each of a set of 12 issues, Texas voters said that they trusted Talarico more on seven issues: artificial intelligence (+1), voting and elections (+2), the cost of living (+3), data centers (+3), healthcare (+6), moral values (+8), and political corruption (+10). Paxton was trusted more in four areas: immigration and border security (+5), public safety (+2), national security (+3), and taxes (+1). They were tied on foreign policy.

Which candidate for United States Senate do you trust to do a better job on the following issues? (October 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
	Ken Paxton	James Talrico	Neither	Don't know/No Opinion
The cost of living	38	41	10	11
Immigration and border security	43	38	8	11
Healthcare	37	43	10	11
Political corruption	31	41	16	12
Voting and elections	38	40	11	11
Artificial intelligence	35	36	13	16
Public safety	41	39	9	11
Moral values	33	41	14	12
National security	41	38	8	13
Foreign policy	39	39	8	14
Taxes	40	39	9	12
Data centers	35	38	13	14

Trust on Issues: Governor

The survey respondents were also asked to assess which gubernatorial candidate they trusted more on major issues facing the state. Abbott fared much better than Hinojosa in these assessments. Texas voters trusted Abbott more on 9 of the 13 issues assessed: immigration and border security (+9), public safety (+7), property taxes (+6), artificial intelligence (+2), data centers (+3), grid reliability (+3), water supply (+3), voting and elections (+2), and moral values (+2). 

Hinojosa was more trusted to do a better job on healthcare (+2) and political corruption (+1). The candidates were equally trusted on handling the cost of living and public education.

Which candidate for Governor do you trust to do a better job on the following issues? (October 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
	Greg Abbott	Gina Hinojosa	Neither	Don't know/No Opinion
The cost of living	41	41	8	10
Immigration and border security	47	38	5	9
Healthcare	41	43	7	9
Political corruption	40	41	8	11
Voting and elections	43	41	7	9
Artificial intelligence	40	38	10	12
Public safety	46	39	6	10
Moral values	43	41	8	8
Public education	42	42	7	9
Data centers	41	38	9	12
Reliability of the electric grid	42	39	9	10
Reliability of the water supply	43	40	7	10
Property taxes	44	38	7	10

The Texas Election Environment

Issues and Voting

Asked in an open-ended question, “What one issue is the most important to your vote in the 2026 Election,” more than a third of the responses (36%) related to costs of living (21%) or the economy (15%), making economic factors the most common theme in the responses. Other common responses included corruption (8%), immigration (5%), and negative responses to Donald Trump (5%).

Economic matters loomed large in the voting considerations of both partisans and independents. Within each partisan group, the largest shares of responses were focused on costs of living and the economy (38% of Republicans, 37% of independents, and 33% of Democrats). While concerns about prices and the economy have been higher among Democrats more generally in the last two years of Texas Politics Project polling, the economy competes with other priorities in the context of the election, which likely explains why Republicans and independents were more likely to prioritize them in this context. Thirteen percent of Democrats cited corruption as the most important issue influencing their vote, followed by 10% citing Donald Trump as a motivation, and another 6% expressing an aspect of supporting Democrats in their effort to “flip” party control of Texas and/or in the U.S. Congress.

Among Republicans, other notable themes in the open-ended responses included supporting Republicans and preventing Democrats from gaining influence (8%), preventing the spread of socialism and/or communism (8%), and immigration (6%). 

Among independents, in addition to their widespread concern about the cost of living and the economy, the predominant concern was corruption, mentioned by 18% of independents, as well as references to better leadership (7%).

Views of the Economy and Economic Concerns

The prevalence of economic concerns in the Texas electorate reflects long-standing negative views of the economy that have persisted through the fall.

Not quite one in four Texas voters (23%) judged the national economy better off than a year ago, while more than half (54%) thought it was worse off, with 19% judging it “about the same.” Partisanship crept into these assessments: 85% of Democrats judged the economy worse off, while only 3% said it was better, and 10% saying it is “about the same.” Yet only 27% of Republicans viewed the economy as worse off compared to a year ago, with 43% saying that the economy is performing better, and more than a quarter (27%) saying that the economy is “the same” compared to last year. Independents were more negative than Republicans but not quite as negative as Democrats: only 8% thought the economy is better than last year, while the majority, 59%, judged it worse off, and 19% found it to be about the same.

Asked whether they thought the Texas economy was better off than a year prior, Texas voters delivered their worst assessments since June 2022, prior to the last mid-term election: on the eve of the 2026 midterms, 24% deem the state’s economy better off than last year, while nearly half (48%) judged it worse, with about a quarter (24%) finding it to be “about the same.”

Their assessments of the specific economic position of their families compared to one year ago were also in net-negative territory, but somewhat more static: 21% reported being better off while 41% judged their economic situation worse off, while slightly more than a third, 35%, said that their family was doing “about the same.” 

Expectations about the state of the economy one year from now were less negative but far from sanguine: roughly equal shares expected the economy to be better off (34%) in a year as expected it to be worse off (35%), while 17% anticipated the economy to be “about the same,” with 13% holding no opinion. 

As in the last several Texas Politics Project surveys, when asked to share how personally concerned they are about several economic areas, concerns about the costs of daily life predominated. More than half of Texans reported being “very concerned” about “the price of food and consumer goods” (62%), “the cost of healthcare” (60%), “the price of gasoline and energy” (61%), and “the cost of housing” (52%).

General Direction of the U.S. and Texas

Tracking the importance attached to the economy, negative views of its trajectory, and elevated concern about prices, views of the trajectory of the U.S. and Texas also continued to dwell in net-negative territory, a consistent pattern going back to mid-2025. More than a third of Texas voters, 35%, said the U.S. was headed in the right direction, while a clear majority, 57%, say that the country is headed on the wrong track (8% expressed no opinion). Views were only slightly less negative about Texas: 37% saw the state headed in the right direction, while 52% say it is on the wrong track.

With statewide elections looming, Democrats’ views are deeply negative (4% right direction, 91% wrong track), while Republicans are largely positive, if not as lopsided as Democrats (73% right direction, 16% wrong track) — another indicator of lagging Republican enthusiasm as the beginning of early voting nears. Independents express largely negative opinions as well (10% right direction, 66% wrong track, 23% no opinion).

Views of Trump and Trump Policy Approval

Donald Trump remains in net negative job approval territory for the 9th consecutive poll since returning to office for his second term, with a majority of Texas voters disapproving of his performance for the third poll in a row  (October, August, and June). With 42% approving and 52% disapproving, his net -10 approval rating is the worst recorded over both of his presidential terms in UT/TXPP polling (first term trend, second term trend). 

Only 1% of Democrats approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 97% disapprove (94% strongly disapprove). Among Republicans, 82% approve (48% strongly), while 12% disapprove and 5% expressed a neutral view. His support is particularly intense among those who identify most strongly with the Republican Party: 65% of the most fervent GOP identifiers “approve strongly” of the President’s performance, compared to 17% of those who identify as “not very strong” Republicans.

Texans’ views of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement created by the president are also in net-unfavorable territory overall. Slightly more than one-third of Texas voters, 35%, expressed favorable views of MAGA, while 48% expressed unfavorable views (43% of which were “very unfavorable”). Democrats are overwhelmingly unfavorable (2% favorable, 91% unfavorable), with independents also, on balance, mostly unfavorably disposed, though less intensely than Democrats (8% favorable, 52% unfavorable, 39% neutral or no opinion).

Republicans remain predominantly aligned with MAGA, though short of being in total agreement: 68% of Texas Republicans have a favorable view (including 43% very favorable), while 14% view the movement unfavorably, with 14% neutral and 4% expressing no opinion. When asked if “the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement has too much influence, too little influence, or the right amount of influence in the Republican Party,” more than half of Texas Republicans thought MAGA had “the right amount” of influence on the GOP (52%), 16% thought the movement had “too little” influence, 17% “too much,” while 15% had no opinion. The results were very similar among self-identified conservatives.

As in the previous UT/Texas Politics Project Poll conducted in August, the president received net-positive job approval ratings in just two of the policy areas in which Texas voters assessed his handling of specific issues: border security (48% approve; 40% disapprove) and immigration (46% approve; 43% disapprove). 

In each of the seven other issue areas tested, more voters disapproved than approved, with majorities disapproving of his handling of the conflict with Iran (51%), the economy (54%) and inflation and prices (57%).

Republicans maintain overwhelmingly positive net approval ratings for the president across each of the areas assessed, though at least one in five GOP voters disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy (21%), and inflation and prices (26%), his weakest assessments among his own partisans. Democrats continue to hold overwhelmingly and uniformly disapproving attitudes across each of the issue areas included in the poll. Independents’ views of the president’s handling of issues was in net-negative territory on each of the issues tested, though slightly less intensely negative than in August polling.

On the U.S. conflict with Iran, the survey asked, “Do you think the U.S. should end the conflict with Iran now, or should it continue the conflict until Iran gives up more?” Overall, 55% supported ending the war now, while 28% supported continuing until Iran “gives up more,” and 17% didn’t have an opinion. Democrats heavily favored ending the war now (86%), while only 3% favored continuing the conflict, with 11% holding no opinion. More than half of Republicans, 54%, favored continuing the conflict until Iran gives up more, while 28% thought the war should end now, with 18% holding no opinion.

Views of Elections and Voting

With disputes over election practices long brewing in the lead up to the kick off of early voting in Texas on October 19, Texans’ responses to a pair of questions reveal familiar partisan doubts about voting in Texas elections — but those doubts remain very different for Republicans and Democrats.

The poll asked Texas voters, “How often do you think that people who are eligible to vote in Texas elections are prevented from voting?” Responses were closely divided, with a slight plurality, 46%, thinking that voters were “never” (20%) or “rarely” (26%) prevented from voting, while 40% believed that eligible voters were “sometimes” (26%) or “frequently” (14%) prevented from casting their ballots.

As in past surveys, sharp partisan differences inform the overall pattern of responses. Almost two-thirds of Democrats, 65%, fall into the “sometimes” (39%) or “frequently” (26%) responses, with a quarter thinking that what Democrats often construe as voter suppression “never” (7%) or “rarely” (18%) happens. Among Republicans, a mirror-image, 69%, express the belief that eligible voters are “never” (32%) or “rarely” (37%) prevented from voting, while 19% think it happens “sometimes” (15%) or “frequently” (4%).

The same partisan pattern, but inverted, is evident in responses to the question, “How often do you think that people who are not eligible vote in Texas elections?” Overall, the division is similar to the “voter suppression” question, though this time the focus is on what Republicans tend to construe as widespread “voter fraud”: overall, 41% think ineligible voters cast ballots “sometimes” (26%) or “frequently” (15%), while 43% think this happens “rarely” (30%) or “never” (13%).

Republicans perceive a much more common occurrence: 63% say ineligible voting happens “sometimes” (38%) or “frequently” (25%), while 22% think it happens “rarely” (16%) or “never” (6%). Nearly three-quarters of Texas Democrats (74%) think ineligible voters cast ballots “rarely” (51%) or “never” (23%).

Amidst significant resources being spent by state and national groups on both voter targeting and turnout efforts, as well as continuing concerns about the administration of elections and contested results in close elections, a majority of Texas voters, 53%, plan to vote in person early, while 31% plan to cast ballots in person on Election Day, and 7% intend to vote by mail. More Democrats than Republicans intend to vote in person early (63% and 48%, respectively), while Republicans are significantly more likely than Democrats (40% to 25%) to say that they intend to vote on Election Day. Similar shares of partisans intend to vote by mail (8% of Republicans and 7% of Democrats).

Artificial Intelligence and Data Centers

The poll also checked in on Texans’ views of the sometimes intertwined issues of data centers and artificial intelligence. These results are included in the poll summary and crosstab files, included in the copious graphics available on the “Latest Poll” page, and the subject of a forthcoming report. Some toplines are included below, with links to graphics of subgroup breakdowns.

“In general, do you support or oppose the construction of a data center in your community?”

“In general, do you think the potential rewards of artificial intelligence outweigh the potential risks, or do the risks outweigh the rewards?”

Expectations of the impact of AI on…

• The economy: Positive impact 30%, negative impact 37%, no impact 9%, no opinion 24%

• U.S. national security: Positive impact 25%, negative impact 44%, no impact 9%, no opinion 22%

• The future of humanity: Positive impact 23%, negative impact 52%, no impact 6%, no opinion 19%

Job Approval ratings

• Gov. Greg Abbott: 44% approve, 45% disapprove (August: 43% / 46%)

• Lt. Gov Dan Patrick: 33% approve, 39% disapprove (August: 34% / 42%)

• Attorney General Ken Paxton: 35% approve, 46% disapprove (August: 33% / 47%)

• Senator Ted Cruz: 39% approve, 47% disapprove (August: 40% / 47%)

• Senator John Cornyn: 26% approve, 43% disapprove (August: 26% / 45%)

• U.S. Congress: 25% approve, 53% disapprove (August: 23% / 55%)

• U.S. Supreme Court: 36% approve, 42% disapprove (August: 35% / 44%)