UT/Texas Politics Project Poll finds still-simmering election concerns as the Texas Legislature convenes in Austin
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As the Texas Legislature convenes for its 89th session, a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll reveals that the concerns that prevailed during the 2024 election continue to shape Texas voters’ views of what lawmakers should prioritize in 2025. Yet while their concerns remained focused on the economy and the state’s Southern border, their overall views of the direction of the state and the country, of the trajectory of the economy, and their evaluations of political leaders were all marginally more positive with the conclusion of the grueling and deeply negative 2024 elections.
When Texas voters were asked in an open-ended question during the interim between the election and the legislative session what they thought the legislature’s top priority should be, immigration or border security-related issues were the most frequently mentioned responses, mentioned by 22% of Texas voters in the poll. The perennial front-runner was followed by the economy or concerns related to high prices, which were mentioned by 16% of Texas voters.
The two issues that dominated last year’s election were the only ones mentioned by more than 10% of voters, with many of the other issues expected to be taken up in the 140-day session that started this week mentioned by smaller shares.
With legislators primed to continue the contentious debates over public education that dominated the previous legislative session in 2023, 8% mentioned public education (barely more than the 5% who prioritized public education in February 2023 UT/TxPP polling as that session began), while crime, property taxes, and healthcare were each mentioned by 4%.
The poll was the last of six University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Polls conducted in 2024, questioning 1200 self-reported registered voters in Texas from December 9-17, 2024. Data collection was conducted over the internet by YouGov using a questionnaire designed by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin. (See the end of this post and the final pages of the topline results for more extensive methodological information, or take a look in our data archive.)
Partisan differences in legislative priorities were consistent with previous UT/TxPP polling over the last year. Among Republicans, concerns about immigration and border security continued to far outpace other priorities: more than a third of Texas’ GOP voters, 37%, thought the legislature’s top priority should be in those areas, followed at a distance by the economy and prices (14%). The shares of Republicans who cited other issues were all in single digits, including public education, mentioned by 6%. Republicans identifying public education as the Legislature’s top priority increased only marginally since last session, from 4% at the beginning of 2023 to 6% in December of 2024. Most responses that cited public education as the legislative priority focused on concerns about system-level financing and teacher salaries. An additional 2% of Republican voters mentioned something about vouchers or school choice.
Texas Democrats’ legislative priorities were more diverse, though again only two issue areas were cited by more than 10% of those voters. The most frequent responses focused on the economy and prices, cited by 18%, followed by public education at 11%. The next most frequent Democratic priorities were immigration and border security (8%), healthcare (7%), and abortion (6%).
As lawmakers begin assessing how to spend the $194.6 billion in available funds identified this week by Comptroller Glen Hegar, majorities of Texas voters said the state was spending “too little” in three policy areas: mental health services (58%), healthcare (55%), and electric infrastructure (50%). About half, 49%, also said the state was spending too little on K-12 public education and on children in the state’s care.
The available funds reported by the Comptroller is slightly less than lawmakers had to spend in the “once in a lifetime” 2023 session. Budget writers begin with $23.8 billion in funds leftover from the previous year, which provides some spending room though significantly less than the $40 billion lawmakers eventually had to work with last session. Relatively few Texans thought the state was spending “too much” on the same set of policy areas — in fact, no more than 20% of voters said that the state was spending “too much” in any of the 12 policy areas tested. The top two areas Texas voters said were the subject of too much spending by the state included higher education (20%) and “prisons and the penal system” (19%), though larger shares said the state was spending “too little” in each of those areas (35% and 27%, respectively).
State Spending Assessments
(December 2024 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
|
Overall |
Republicans |
Democrats |
|
Too Much |
About the Right Amount |
Too Little |
Too Much |
About the Right Amount |
Too Little |
Too Much |
About the Right Amount |
Too Little |
Mental Health Services |
6 |
23 |
58 |
8 |
28 |
49 |
5 |
16 |
70 |
Healthcare |
9 |
23 |
55 |
12 |
30 |
42 |
6 |
14 |
73 |
Electric Infrastructure |
8 |
29 |
50 |
9 |
30 |
45 |
6 |
27 |
58 |
K-12 Public Education |
10 |
29 |
49 |
14 |
35 |
37 |
5 |
23 |
65 |
Children in the State's Care |
7 |
26 |
49 |
9 |
31 |
39 |
5 |
21 |
64 |
Border Security |
17 |
29 |
45 |
5 |
26 |
63 |
30 |
32 |
27 |
Water Infrastructure |
6 |
33 |
44 |
7 |
36 |
38 |
6 |
29 |
53 |
Environmental Protection |
15 |
31 |
40 |
24 |
41 |
19 |
6 |
21 |
65 |
Transportation |
9 |
40 |
37 |
13 |
45 |
27 |
7 |
37 |
48 |
Higher Education |
20 |
30 |
35 |
30 |
31 |
22 |
7 |
29 |
52 |
Broadband Access |
9 |
36 |
31 |
10 |
40 |
21 |
6 |
33 |
41 |
Prisons and the Penal System |
19 |
36 |
27 |
14 |
41 |
26 |
22 |
31 |
30 |
Unsurprisingly, partisan differences shaped spending priorities in dramatic ways. Among the state’s majority party voters, 63% said the state was spending too little on border security, with less than half indicating the same about any of the other 11 policy areas assessed, with only mental health services (49%) approaching a majority who feel the state is spending too little.
Nonetheless, there wasn’t significantly more appetite than in the general population for a reduction in spending in most of the areas tested, with pluralities of Republican voters saying that the state either spends too little, or the right amount, in each of the other areas.
Among Democrats, majorities indicated that the state spends too little in 8 of the 12 areas tested, with healthcare (73%), mental health services (70%), K-12 public education (65%), environmental protection (65%), and children in the state’s care (64%) topping the list of areas in which Democrats say the state is under-spending.
The survey also asked Texas voters about the strictness of state laws in six policy areas that have been active subjects of public advocacy and legislative activity in recent sessions: voting, guns, abortion, gambling, marijuana/cannabis, and access to online pornography.
The policy areas attracting the largest share of support for stricter laws included the regulation of access to online pornography (51%) and gun laws (50%). The partisan gap in preferences for stricter regulation of online pornography was relatively small (58% among Republicans compared to 46% among Democrats). By contrast, the partisan gap in support for stricter gun laws was huge (76% among Democrats versus only 28% among Republicans).
State Law Preferences
(December 2024 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll)
|
Overall |
Republicans |
Democrats |
|
More Strict |
Less Strict |
Left as they are now |
More Strict
|
Less Strict
|
Left as they are now |
More Strict
|
Less Strict
|
Left as they are now |
The rules for voting |
35 |
22 |
36 |
49 |
9 |
36 |
20 |
39 |
36 |
Gun laws |
50 |
18 |
26 |
28 |
26 |
40 |
76 |
10 |
10 |
Abortion laws |
27 |
43 |
21 |
37 |
21 |
31 |
15 |
70 |
9 |
Gambling laws |
30 |
30 |
26 |
28 |
30 |
29 |
31 |
31 |
25 |
Marijuana/Cannabis laws |
32 |
41 |
18 |
39 |
33 |
20 |
25 |
53 |
15 |
Laws regulating access to online pornography |
51 |
18 |
19 |
58 |
12 |
21 |
25 |
53 |
15 |
The issues attracting the largest shares of voters expressing a desire to make Texas’ laws less strict included abortion (43%) and marijuana (41%). Democratic support for making abortion laws less strict was widespread (70%), with 15% wanting Texas’ existing near-total ban on abortion made more strict. Republicans were more divided in their views: about one in five GOP voters (21%) say that they want less strict abortion laws, while 37% want the current laws made still more strict, with the remaining 31% supporting the status quo (i.e. laws should be “left as they are now”). Taken together, more than two-thirds of the state’s GOP voters, 68%, want the state’s abortion laws left alone or made even stricter.
The poll found less consensus on marijuana laws among Republican voters in Texas compared to Democrats: a third of Republicans (33%) said that they want the state’s cannabis laws made less strict, compared to more than half of Democrats (53%). A bare plurality of Republicans want marijuana laws more strict (39%), while a fifth (20%) want them left as they are now.
Economic views
The severity of Texas voters’ views of the economy abated slightly in the wake of the election, though their retrospective assessments of the economy and their own personal economic situation conveyed stagnation rather than outright improvement.
Asked to assess whether the state and national economy, as well as their personal economic situations, were better, the same, or worse than a year ago, fewer Texans saw worse conditions than has become the norm since the economic disruptions of the coronavirus pandemic. There is evidence of slight movement toward a more positive economic outlook. Texas voters were equally likely to see the national and state economies as better than one year ago, while they remain more likely to see the national economy as worse than the state’s.
Considering the Texas economy in December compared to a year earlier, 28% said it was better, 43% said it was about the same, and 25% said it was worse. The share who thought it was better increased 5 percentage points compared to October, while the share who thought it was worse decreased from 35% in October to 25% in December. The share who thought the economy was the same as the previous year increased from 37% to 43% in the same period.
Views of the national economy remained more negative, though they also showed some improvement. The share who thought the economy was better, 27%, was unchanged from October, though the share who said it was worse decreased eight percentage points, from 48% in October to 40% in December. The share who thought national conditions were the same increased from 23% to 30%.
There were similarly tentative improvements in Texans’ assessments of their personal economic circumstances. There were no discernible changes in the share who reported economic improvement for their households, 24%, from October (25%), while the share who said they were worse off decreased from 41% to 34% over the same period. The share who reported being in the same shape economically decreased from 19% to 16%.
The only sign of clear optimism came in prospective assessments of whether the economy would be better or worse off a year from now: 52% thought it would be better, 23% thought it would be worse, and 16% thought it would be about the same. Republicans, fresh off of electing one of their own to replace a Democrat they didn’t trust to manage the economy, were largely optimistic – 73% expected the economy to improve, while only 7% thought it would be worse. By comparison, a much smaller share of Democrats, 34%, expected the economy to improve, while 42% expected it to be worse.
Underlying the tentative improvement in economic conditions was continuing widespread concern about prices: 70% reported being “very concerned” about the price of food and consumer goods, which was unchanged from October. Additionally, 67% were similarly concerned about the cost of healthcare, and 58% about the cost of housing.
Mood of the state
Texas voters’ assessments of conditions in the state also showed signs of slight improvement from earlier in the year.
The survey found the largest share of Texas voters, 47%, saying that the state is headed in the right direction since the last pre-pandemic survey in February 2020, while 38% say the state is on the wrong track.
Assessments of the direction of the country remained significantly more negative, though those ratings also improved as the year was ending: only 31% said the U.S. is headed in the right direction, while more than half, 56%, said the country is on the wrong track. This was a slight but notable improvement from October 2024 (26% right direction, 63% wrong track).
Partisan views of the path of the country were likely shaped by the outcome of the presidential election. Republicans' assessments improved from a dismal 11% right direction, 83% wrong track in October to 34% right direction, 56% wrong direction in December. Democrats shifted in the opposite direction, from 45% right direction, 38% wrong track in October to a significantly more pessimistic 32% right direction, 55% wrong track in December.
Job approval of state leaders
Most Texas elected officials enter the new year with their job approval ratings on the upswing. However, it is worth noting that previous December UT/TxPP Polls have found slight upticks in job approvals as well, suggesting that there may well be a general tendency for at least some voters to be in a more positive mindset in December. This might be attributable to environmental factors such as a reduction in political news during the holidays and/or some voters’ generally more positive affect during the holiday season — however, don’t expect positivity to reign indefinitely, as the upcoming legislative session is likely to provide voters from both parties with fresh evidence for their views.
Governor Greg Abbott: 55% approve, 34% disapprove
- +21 net approval (the difference between approval and disapproval) is Abbott’s best since April of 2020 (+24)
- Republicans: 83%-8%
- Democrats: 30%-61%
- Near high in overall approval ratings, including peaks among Democratic and white voters (66%)
Lt. Governor Dan Patrick: 41% approve, 27% disapprove
- Net +14 is best in the time series going back to October 2015 (avg. net +2.59)
- Republicans: 61%-8%
- Democrats: 24%-49%
Speaker of the House Dade Phelan: 27% approve, 24% disapprove
- Republicans: 30%-20%
- Democrats 25%-29%
- Final assessments of Phelan’s term as House speaker.
Attorney General Ken Paxton: 40% approve, 30% disapprove
- Net approval rating of +10 is best in the time series going back to April 2021
- Republicans: 60%-11%
- Democrats: 22%-53%
U.S. Senator John Cornyn: 34% approve, 33% disapprove
- Cornyn continues his trend of receiving the lowest job approval rating among GOP incumbents.
- Republicans: 44%-24%
- Democrats: 25%-43%
- Senate seat up for election in 2026.
U.S. Senator Ted Cruz: 49% approve, 37% disapprove
- Net +12 is best in the time series going back to October 2015
- Tied for highest total approval rating and lowest disapproval rating in the series
- Republicans: 78%-10%
- Democrats: 22%-65%
- Lowest Democratic disapproval in the series (65%)
- Cruz won reelection in 2024 by defeating Democrat Colin Allred 53.1% - 44.5%.
Texas public figures and celebrities
At the end of a year in which Texans, either by birth or relocation, were in the news – in some prominent cases as a result of some combination of their celebrity and their politics – the December UT/TxPP Poll probed Texans’ views of a dozen prominent public figures associated with the state.
Texans who have made their politics more known tended to receive the most mixed reviews. Businessman Elon Musk, whose relocation to Texas was followed by his close and very public alliance with Donald Trump, was viewed favorably by 54% of Texas voters and unfavorably by 30%. While Musk’s business profile and past political associations have been varied, his association with Trump appears to have earned him the approval of Texas Republicans, 80% of whom view him favorably (54% very favorably) while only 6% view him unfavorably. Democrats also seem to have been influenced by Musk’s efforts in the presidential election: 27% viewed him favorably while 59% viewed him unfavorably (48% very unfavorably).
Other public figures assessed in the poll who made prominent cameos in politics in 2024 included: Joe Rogan (42% favorable, 21% unfavorable); Mark Cuban (39% favorable, 25% unfavorable); Beyoncé (39% favorable, 34% unfavorable); and Greg Popovich (33% favorable, 29% unfavorable).
Overall, Willie Nelson and Matthew McConaughey received the most favorable ratings, with 58% of Texans holding favorable views and only 8% offering a negative opinion of each. They were followed closely by Olympic champion Simone Biles (56% favorable, 8% unfavorable). The only other public figure assessed who received unfavorable views from fewer than 10% of Texas voters included Hall of Fame baseball pitcher Nolan Ryan (48% favorable, 3% unfavorable).
In all other cases, Texans’ views were more mixed, if still mostly positive. Singer, actress, and entrepreneur Selena Gomez received favorable impressions from 49% of Texans compared to unfavorable views from 13%. Only Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones received net negative views from Texas voters, with 24% holding a favorable view and 28% holding an unfavorable view.
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The poll also probed views of national politics, including Texans’ response to the potential agenda of the Trump administration, as well as Texans’ views of a number of foreign countries, including allies and adversaries, and much more. These results are included in the poll summary, and will be the subject of further analysis next week.
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