Blogs: November 2014

Texas is already at the epicenter of the 2016 GOP presidential race — and not just because four Republicans with links to the state are on most early lists of top potential candidates. 

President Obama has regularly been scorned by Democrats for his lack of interest in raw, naked politicking, but in announcing an executive action that will likely shield just under five million undocumented immigrants from deportation, he may have simultaneously altered the trajectory of the immigration debate while increasing the probability of party system change in places with large Hispanic populations, like Texas. 

Last night, President Obama announced an executive action that would likely shield the deportation of up to five million undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States. In the October 2014 University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, we asked Texas voters whether they agree or disagree with the following statement: "Undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States should be deported immediately." We found that overall, 60 percent of Texans, and large majorities of Republicans, Conservatives, and Tea Party Republicans all agreed. 

The final tallies from last week were relatively predictable, but they still raise an important question: Was there something particular to Texas this year that gave Republicans here such huge wins?

The postmortems of the 2014 Texas elections will no doubt feature much analysis of the split-partisan identity of the Hispanic electorate and why Davis didn't better connect with Texas' female voters, but the bigger explanation may yet rest on white males and their rejection of Wendy Davis and the Democrats.