Post Date: January 2020
Donald Trump’s potential impact on Texas voters in the 2020 elections remains one of the key factors in both major parties’ strategies for the general election in November.
Polling data from the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll illustrates that, when it comes to national politics, the Texas GOP is the party of Trump. The table below illustrates that in several major demographic categories, Trump’s job approval remains high three years into his presidency, and, while there have been some minor fluctuations, among most GOP constituencies his approval has held steady or even increased. Among the notable voting groups that have been the subject of attention from both parties, the President's approval numbers among Republican women were seven percentage points higher in October 2019 (85%) than they were in February 2017 (78%), shortly after his inauguration. In the suburbs, ground zero for both parties’ efforts in 2020, the president’s job approval among Republicans is at 88%, essentially unchanged since the beginning of presidency.
As the 2020 election campaign continues to unfold, we’ll update this table with new polling data and perhaps even new sub-categories of GOP voters where the data is available and relevant.
Glacial shift in Republican attitudes toward climate change masks significant differences between younger and older Texas GOP voters
The orthodoxy of climate change denial that ruled mainstream Republican politics is melting in some key corners of the Party, even if the change is happening at a pace previous generations had the luxury of calling “glacial.” Even as the septuagenarian figurehead of the national GOP openly mocks the most well-known, youthful climate change activist on the global stage, the signs of a pivot toward an acceptance of the basic fact of human-caused climate change is evident in the attitudes of the overwhelming majority of young voters, even Republican ones.