Trends in Partisan Ideological Identification in Texas Illuminate McCain's Past, Trump's Present, O'Rourke's Future
Today, we took great interest in the Tweet below by Carroll Doherty at the Pew Research Center, highlighting increasing conservative identification among Republican voters over the timespan between John McCain's first presidential campaign in 2000 and today. Pew's data show conservative idenfitication in the GOP increasing by 12 points, from 56 percent to 68 percent. The Pew data got us wondering about whether these trends manifest themselves in Texas, so we pulled together polling data from over 30 University of Texas / Texas Tribune polls to see if and how ideological identification in Texas has changed since 2008 (the inaugural year of our data). The data series is represented in the graphics below.
While we found the most recent University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll chock full of fascinating results on attitudes toward issues that illuminate much of the recent political discussion in the 2016 races in both Texas and the U.S., with the Texas primary coming up Tuesday it seems appropriate to look at some of the undercurrents of the results from the trial ballots in the presidential nominating contests, including Cruz's standing with extremely conservative voters as well as some slippage in his standing, the Clinton-Sanders race, Texans' views of outsiders, and more.
Mark P. Jones of Rice University ranks the ideological composition of registered voters in Texas' 20 most populous counties using University of Texas/Texas Tribune Polling Data.
In several races, Tuesday's election results didn't match the findings of the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll two weeks earlier. What happened?
It's not surprising that the political class hasn't rallied to one side or the other on the debate over NSA surveillance; the public is sending oblique messages to its elected officials.
The wave of migrants coming from California are coming for the economy, and it is not safe to assume this is a pack of West Coast liberals who want to change Texas politics.
The February 2012 University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll shows a riptide of very conservative opinion is exerting a strong pull on state politics.
Which groups in Texas believe most strongly that their members of Congress don't represent people "like them"? Liberal and moderate whites.