Daron Shaw

Poll Findings vs. Election Results

March 6, 2014
By: 
Daron Shaw
Jim Henson, PhD
Joshua Blank, PhD

In several races, Tuesday's election results didn't match the findings of the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll two weeks earlier. What happened?

What Early Poll Results Tell Us

November 6, 2013
By: 
Jim Henson, PhD
Joshua Blank, PhD
Daron Shaw

The latest UT/TT Poll showing a single-digit lead for Greg Abbott over Wendy Davis in the gubernatorial race raised some eyebrows. Adding some context to a survey taken more than a year before Election Day helps provide some clarity on the results.

UT/TT Poll Changes With Evolving Environment

March 8, 2013
By: 
Joshua Blank, PhD
Jim Henson, PhD
Daron Shaw

By increasing our sample size and providing more analyses of the data in our blog, we hope to provide interested parties with what they seek: in-depth coverage of the actors and issues that are driving important parts of the political process in the state. 

Refining the UT/TT Poll

March 4, 2013
By: 
Joshua Blank, PhD
Jim Henson, PhD
Daron Shaw

The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll has a bigger sample size than its predecessors — the better to see what various subgroups of Texans are thinking about politics and policy in the state.

Different Voter Models, Different Poll Results

October 26, 2010
By: 
Jim Henson, PhD
Daron Shaw

So how to create a likely voter model? Campaign pollsters typically use a combination of past voting history — available off the registered voter list — and current interest and engagement. Those who have voted in the past, as well as those who are jazzed about voting this year, tend to get into the likely electorate.

Is the Texas Governor's Race as Close as It Looks?

September 13, 2010
By: 
Daron Shaw

Make no mistake: A Democrat running in a statewide race in Texas who is not losing by double-digits is doing relatively well. But this raises the larger question: Can Bill White actually win?

UT/Texas Tribune Polls Finds GOP Strength

May 24, 2010
By: 
Jim Henson, PhD
Daron Shaw

At this point, anti-incumbent sentiment in Texas appears to be dwarfed by party identification and opposition to the national Democratic Party.

How the Governor's Race Polls Have Trended

March 1, 2010
By: 
Jim Henson, PhD
Daron Shaw

An election that initially favored Sen. Hutchison has settled into a contest where Sen. Hutchison’s support is in the high 20’s while Gov. Perry’s is in the mid-40’s.

The February 2010 Results

February 12, 2010
By: 
Jim Henson, PhD
Daron Shaw

The University of Texas / Texas Tribune poll, conducted from February 1-7, shows Gov. Rick Perry holding a 24-point lead over U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican gubernatorial primary contest, with Debra Medina posing a surprisingly strong challenge to Hutchison for second place.

Trib Poll Shows Texans Disapprove of DC

November 6, 2009
By: 
Jim Henson, PhD
Daron Shaw

The UT/Tribune poll results convey some very intense disapproval of political leadership.

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