Keyword: Immigration
Trends in Latino attitudes in Texas foreshadowed Trump’s gains in 2024
A review of extensive data on Latino attitudes in the Texas Politics Project polling archive in conjunction with election returns and exit polling suggests that the signs of Trump’s success in 2024 were hiding in plain sight, albeit amidst fluctuations in the data attributable to both methodological and empirical factors.
The Republican emphasis on the border and immigration in the 2024 election is about more than migrant flows
Article after article covering the prominence of immigration and border security in the Republican campaigns for U.S. Senate and president in Texas have rightly noted the long-established salience of immigration and the border to Republican voters, and the central role of these issues in the “closing arguments” of GOP candidates at the top of the ballot in Texas, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.
But clear as this pattern is, it doesn’t explain why the issue maintains salience in the face of clear policy changes by the Biden administration, or the subsequent near-term decline in migrant traffic at the U.S.-Mexico border from historic highs in the last 11 months to the fewest encounters in the last four years. It can easily be made to seem like a puzzle: if the problem has been addressed and has abated, why is it still so important to Republican voters?
Second Reading Podcast: A final pre-election look at Texas attitudes on key campaign issues
Jim Henson and Joshua Blank review Texas attitudes on the issues being promoted to attempted comparative advantage by the presidential and U.S. Senate campaigns in Texas: immigration & the border, abortion, and transgender rights.
With voting about to start in Texas, Trump and Cruz maintain single-digit leads in new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll
With early voting about to kick off in Texas, the latest 2024 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds former president Donald Trump leading Vice-President Kamala Harris 51% to 46% among likely voters in the presidential race in Texas. Green Party candidate Jill Stein was the choice of 2%, while Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver received 1%. In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican Ted Cruz holds a 7-point lead among likely voters over his Democratic challenger, Congressman Colin Allred, 51% to 44%, with Libertarian Ted Brown the choice of 4%.
Second Reading Podcast: Digging into Texas presidential results in the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll
The Texas Politics Project polling team talks about results in the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll.
Second Reading Podcast: Immigration and elections return to center state in Texas politics for Labor Day
Jim Henson talks with veteran observer of Texas politics Harvey Kronberg about the impact of the rebooted presidential race in Texas, and simmering politics in Texas over legislative elections, the grid and vouchers, and relations among Texas' big three.
Second Reading Podcast: Court rulings, a Speaker's race, and the presidential context in Texas
Jim Henson and Josh Blank look at actions in the courts that influenced politics in Texas this week involving SB 4, abortion, and Ken Paxton, as well as the emerging Speaker's race signaled by Rep. Tom Oliverson's candidacy.
Second Reading Podcast: Federalism and the border in the spotlight (and the strange case of Texas Nationalism)
Jim Henson & Josh Blank look at the conflict between Texas and the federal government over border enforcement, and how it's fed the boom in attention to Texas nationalism (Note: recorded prior to the US Supreme Court lifting the stay on SB 4.)
Second Reading Podcast: The Texas Primaries deliver some drama
In a new Second Reading podcast, Jim Henson and Josh Blank look at the implications of the results of primary elections in Texas.
The Presidents Come to the Texas Border
National and state politics converge this week with the simultaneous visits of President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump to the Texas-Mexico border on Thursday. Trump will appear in Eagle Pass, the site of ongoing tension between state and federal law enforcement agencies deployed to manage the increased flow of migrants into the U.S., while Biden will visit Brownsville.