Blogs: Joshua Blank

The plurality of renters, 42%, said that property taxes had no impact on their finances. But renters don’t appear to be completely oblivious about the impact of property taxes on housing costs: a majority, 58%, said that property taxes had either a major impact on their finances (34%), or at least a minor impact (24%). Twice as many homeowners as renters, 68%, said property taxes had a major impact on their finances, with only 10% feeling no impact at all.

UT/TxPP polling suggests that while Kennedy himself has achieved a degree of favorable reviews among a non-trivial share of Texas voters (though a declining share over time), views of the safety and efficacy of vaccines remain significantly less widespread than the mainstreaming of RFK, Jr. as a public figure might suggest.

Governor Abbott’s State of the State Address rolled out seven emergency items as well as a host of tone-setting policy signals. Below is a selection of polling results about each of Governor Abbott's emergency items and Lieutenant Governor Patrick's corresponding priority bills.

Republicans remain broadly supportive of many of the Trump administration’s promises, but the relative priorities they assign to specific elements of Trump’s agenda reveal tensions — some inherent, some self-made — present in a body of promises made during the heat of a presidential campaign.

As the Texas Legislature convenes for its 89th session, a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll reveals that the concerns that prevailed during the 2024 election continue to shape Texas voters’ views of what lawmakers should prioritize in 2025.

A review of extensive data on Latino attitudes in the Texas Politics Project polling archive in conjunction with election returns and exit polling suggests that the signs of Trump’s success in 2024 were hiding in plain sight, albeit amidst fluctuations in the data attributable to both methodological and empirical factors.

Article after article covering the prominence of immigration and border security in the Republican campaigns for U.S. Senate and president in Texas have rightly noted the long-established salience of immigration and the border to Republican voters, and the central role of these issues in the “closing arguments” of GOP candidates at the top of the ballot in Texas, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. But clear as this pattern is, it doesn’t explain why the issue maintains salience in the face of clear policy changes by the Biden administration, or the subsequent near-term decline in migrant traffic at the U.S.-Mexico border from historic highs in the last 11 months to the fewest encounters in the last four years. It can easily be made to seem like a puzzle: if the problem has been addressed and has abated, why is it still so important to Republican voters?

In both the Presidential and U.S. Senate races, efforts by the candidates to portray their opponents as extremists while presenting themselves as comparatively moderate and bipartisan has had mixed effects. Overall, this messaging is resonating more with candidates’ partisans in the state than with their opponents’ base voters, making these tactics likely to be more successful at mobilizing partisans than at persuading the opposition's voters that their own candidate is too radical. Nor do the ostensible efforts to scare independents with claims of ideological extremism seem to be having the effects the campaigns desire. A closer look at the University of Texas / Texas Politics illuminates how the efforts at contrasting moderation with extremism have fared – but also suggests that the surprising attraction of the middle in Texas politics is likely to be fleeting once the U.S. Senate race is settled and behind us.

The closer we get to Election Day, the more attention gets paid to horse race results in polling – often at the expense of a deeper look into what polling can tell us about the context of that election. Much of University of Texas/Texas Politics Project polling conducted during the election season aims to illuminate the context of the election and, maybe even more important now that our polling project is well into its second decade, the arc of the ongoing developments in Texas politics.We’ve gathered some of the results from the recently released October poll (conducted from the 2nd through the 10th) to give some more depth to the trial ballots – and to capture some of the contextual elements of the political universe in Texas as the 2024 election enters its final days. (And, to be as gentle as possible, to start thinking about the upcoming legislative session and what promises to be a very active and interesting round of elections for statewide offices in 2026.)

With early voting about to kick off in Texas, the latest 2024 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds former president Donald Trump leading Vice-President Kamala Harris 51% to 46% among likely voters in the presidential race in Texas. Green Party candidate Jill Stein was the choice of 2%, while Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver received 1%. In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican Ted Cruz holds a 7-point lead among likely voters over his Democratic challenger, Congressman Colin Allred, 51% to 44%, with Libertarian Ted Brown the choice of 4%.