U.S. Congress Trial Ballot (June 2018)

U.S. Congress Trial Ballot (June 2018)

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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for the Representative in the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"

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categoryTotal
Democratic candidate41%
Republican candidate43%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion17%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for the Representative in the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents . Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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categoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Democratic candidate88%22%2%
Republican candidate2%26%86%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion11%52%11%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for the Representative in the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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categoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
Democratic candidate79%83%95%
Republican candidate2%1%2%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion20%16%3%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for the Representative in the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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categoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
Democratic candidate2%3%1%
Republican candidate78%80%95%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion19%17%4%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for the Representative in the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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categoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Democratic candidate85%44%9%
Republican candidate6%19%81%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion9%38%10%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for the Representative in the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
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categoryLeaning liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
Democratic candidate82%83%92%
Republican candidate5%7%4%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion13%10%4%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for the Representative in the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    The ideology measure is based on respondent self-placement in response to the following question: "On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4 is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself?" The placements are further classified such that 1 is extremely liberal, 2 is very liberal, 3 is somewhat liberal, 4 is moderate, 5 is somewhat conservative, 6 is very conservative, and 7 is extremely conservative.
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categoryLeaning conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Democratic candidate12%6%10%
Republican candidate70%83%86%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion17%11%4%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for the Representative in the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Tea Party identification is based on the following question, also asked in the survey: "Suppose the Tea Party movement organized itself as a political party. When thinking about the next election for Congress, would you vote for the Republican candidate from your district, the Democratic candidate from your district, or the Tea Party candidate from your district?" Those who responded "Republican candidate" are considered Republicans (non-Tea Party movement) and those who responded "Tea Party candidate" are considered Tea Party Republicans.
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categoryDemocratRepublicanTea Party
Democratic candidate93%3%3%
Republican candidate1%89%85%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion6%8%13%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for the Representative in the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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categoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Democratic candidate33%74%41%
Republican candidate56%6%31%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion11%20%28%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for the Representative in the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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categoryMaleFemale
Democratic candidate36%44%
Republican candidate48%38%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion15%18%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for the Representative in the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Community is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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categoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Democratic candidate52%38%28%
Republican candidate28%46%58%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion19%16%15%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for the Representative in the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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category18-2930-4445-6465+
Democratic candidate46%44%38%37%
Republican candidate35%31%47%54%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion19%25%15%8%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for the Representative in the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?"
    Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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categoryNo high schoolHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Democratic candidate13%37%43%39%43%54%
Republican candidate26%43%48%44%45%34%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion61%20%10%17%11%11%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for the Representative in the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
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categoryExtremely importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
Democratic candidate31%38%39%69%
Republican candidate54%44%36%20%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion16%18%24%11%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2018 election for the Representative in the United States House of Representatives in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion?" Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
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categoryThe Bible is the word of God, to be taken literallyThe Bible is the word of God, not to be taken literallyThe Bible is a book written by men
Democratic candidate28%35%68%
Republican candidate55%50%20%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion17%15%12%

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