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A closer look at the public opinion context for Ken Paxton’s trial in the Texas Senate
Suspended Attorney General Ken Paxton’s trial in the Texas Senate is finally upon us. We worked to make data related to Paxton and the trial available before the weekend, which didn’t leave much time or space for analysis. As the trial begins, here are some observations about the poll results that incorporate more detail from the data, and more context for the politics of the historic events that will unfold this week on the floor of the Texas Senate.
The main points:
– Skepticism about Paxton’s impeachment and trial remains more evident and more intense among the most conservative Texans – but not decisively so.
– Erosion in public assessments of Paxton is evident in his job approval ratings, including among groups that are relatively more supportive of Him.
– Paxton can count on a comparatively high baseline of Republican belief that the investigations of the suspended attorney general are mostly political as opposed to mostly based on the facts.
– The latest poll results continue to confirm the absence of any public opinion data substantiating the “forgiveness” or “prior term” doctrine Paxton has invoked in his defense.
– Support for Paxton among his Republican constituents lacks the durability of Republicans' support of Trump.
New UT/Texas Politics Project Poll: Texans' views of Ken Paxton as his trial nears
With suspended Attorney General Ken Paxton's impeachment trial in the Texas Senate set to begin on Tuesday, September 5, a new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds that a plurality of Texans, 47%, think Paxton took actions that justify removing him office, while 18% say he did not. Paxton fares slightly better among Republicans, though his partisan base remains divided, with the plurality unsure of whether Paxton should, or should not, be removed from office. See the post for links to summary doc and a new Second Reading podcast focused on the advance release of results related to the Paxton impeachment and trial.
Second Reading Podcast: Unpacking the notion of an informed electorate in the context of the Paxton impeachment trial
In a new Second Reading Podcast, Jim Henson and Josh Blank discuss what UT/Texas Politics Project polling can tell us about Texan's attention to the Paxton impeachment – and the notion that his reelection implied voters' forgave for his legal and ethical troubles.
Is all forgiven? Texas public opinion and the “prior term doctrine” in Ken Paxton's impeachment trial
Setting aside for the moment the logic and legalisms of both the Paxton legal team’s invocation of the prior-term doctrine and the House managers’ response, public opinion polling suggests that relatively small shares of Texas voters have heard “a lot” about Paxton’s legal problems, including in the run-up to the 2022 election.
Second Reading Podcast: Why Abbott is buoyed by his border policies + Texas GOP responses to the latest Trump indictment
In a new Second Reading Podcast, Jim Henson and Josh Blank discuss the politics of Greg Abbott’s latest testing of the boundaries of support for his border policies, and look at the impact in Texas, or lack thereof, of the latest Trump indictments.
Second Reading Podcast: A conversation with The Dallas Morning News' Lauren McGaughy about the Paxton trial
In a new Second Reading Podcast, Jim Henson talks with The Dallas Morning News' Lauren McGaughy about the latest in the impeachment trial of suspended Attorney General Ken Paxton.
As GOP preemption bill steers power to the state, most Texans still express positive views of locals
While stifling the autonomy of state governments has been an ongoing project of the state’s Republican elected officials for several years, the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll found Texas voters much more positively inclined toward their local government than toward state government.
The (very) early public opinion context for the 2024 US Senate Race in Texas
Texas state senator Roland Gutierrez’s widely-expected announcement that he will join U.S. Congressman Colin Allred in seeking the Democratic nomination to challenge incumbent U.S. Senator Ted Cruz in 2024 sets the stage for a long campaign in what could shape up to be one of the marquee Senate races in the next election.
Public Opinion and Texas Republicans’ Property Tax Problem
June 2023 poll ing suggests that campaign promises by Republicans to cut property taxes, followed by the Republican victors’ failure to deliver in the extended legislative session (so far), has likely exacerbated Texas voters’ dissatisfaction with legislative performance on the issue – and fed their low expectations of ever seeing their property taxes go down.
Second Reading Podcast: Unpacking Texans' reviews of legislative action on policy in the latest UT/Texas Politics Project Poll
In a new Second Reading Podcast, Jim Henson and Josh Blank take a closer look at Texans' reviews of the legislature's action on policies in the state, and ways of interpreting reviews of the 88th Legislature (so far).