U.S. Senate Trial Ballot, Cruz vs. Gutierrez (February 2024)

U.S. Senate Trial Ballot, Cruz vs. Gutierrez (February 2024)

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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Roland Gutierrez”] Ted Cruz and Roland Gutierrez, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?"
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categoryTotal
Ted Cruz45%
Roland Gutierrez31%
Someone else9%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion14%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Roland Gutierrez”] Ted Cruz and Roland Gutierrez, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Ted Cruz12%30%81%
Roland Gutierrez61%22%6%
Someone else12%17%6%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion16%31%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Roland Gutierrez”] Ted Cruz and Roland Gutierrez, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
Ted Cruz5%20%10%
Roland Gutierrez65%43%67%
Someone else11%11%13%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion19%26%10%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Roland Gutierrez”] Ted Cruz and Roland Gutierrez, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
Ted Cruz80%71%87%
Roland Gutierrez5%8%5%
Someone else12%10%1%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion3%11%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Roland Gutierrez”] Ted Cruz and Roland Gutierrez, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Ted Cruz12%27%80%
Roland Gutierrez61%32%8%
Someone else14%12%5%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion13%29%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Roland Gutierrez”] Ted Cruz and Roland Gutierrez, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
Ted Cruz10%17%7%
Roland Gutierrez58%61%65%
Someone else18%10%16%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion14%13%12%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Roland Gutierrez”] Ted Cruz and Roland Gutierrez, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Ted Cruz68%81%84%
Roland Gutierrez15%7%6%
Someone else11%3%3%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion6%9%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Roland Gutierrez”] Ted Cruz and Roland Gutierrez, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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CategoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Ted Cruz57%21%34%
Roland Gutierrez25%42%38%
Someone else7%14%11%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion11%23%17%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Roland Gutierrez”] Ted Cruz and Roland Gutierrez, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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CategoryMaleFemale
Ted Cruz51%41%
Roland Gutierrez32%30%
Someone else8%11%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion10%18%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Roland Gutierrez”] Ted Cruz and Roland Gutierrez, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Community type is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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CategoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Ted Cruz36%47%61%
Roland Gutierrez37%31%18%
Someone else10%9%11%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion17%14%10%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Roland Gutierrez”] Ted Cruz and Roland Gutierrez, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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Category18-2930-4445-6465+
Ted Cruz34%35%47%60%
Roland Gutierrez33%30%32%29%
Someone else9%15%9%5%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion24%21%12%6%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Roland Gutierrez”] Ted Cruz and Roland Gutierrez, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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CategoryNo HSHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Ted Cruz50%54%43%35%45%42%
Roland Gutierrez12%25%35%35%30%40%
Someone else6%8%7%12%11%11%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion32%13%15%19%14%7%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Roland Gutierrez”] Ted Cruz and Roland Gutierrez, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
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CategoryExtremely importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
Ted Cruz57%42%36%21%
Roland Gutierrez20%37%40%46%
Someone else8%7%13%17%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion15%15%12%16%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2024 U.S. senate election in Texas were held today, and the candidates were [RANDOMIZE ORDER “Ted Cruz”, “Roland Gutierrez”] Ted Cruz and Roland Gutierrez, who would you vote for, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
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CategoryThe Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is the word of God but not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is a book written by men and is not the word of God.Don't know.
Ted Cruz57%47%21%38%
Roland Gutierrez20%32%53%19%
Someone else8%8%12%19%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion16%12%14%24%

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